November soybean futures have pushed higher as the market continues to price in strong domestic demand tied to the renewable diesel sector. USDA's May WASDE report projected U.S. soybean crush at a record 2.75 billion bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year, reflecting favorable processor margins and continued expansion in biomass-based diesel demand. Even with U.S. production forecast to rebound to 4.435 billion bushels, rising crush demand is tightening the balance sheet and limiting the potential for burdensome carryout growth. For soybean traders and hedgers, the key point is that domestic demand is now providing a stronger floor underneath the market than in previous years, particularly during seasonal periods when export demand alone would not normally support rallies.
Seasonally, soybean futures often build strength into the summer weather market, and this year's move has been reinforced by improving technical momentum and renewed trade optimism. Expectations for additional U.S.-China agricultural agreements have added a risk premium to the export outlook, despite large South American supplies remaining available on the world market. From a chart perspective, November futures have maintained higher lows and attracted buying on breaks, a sign that commercial and speculative participants are willing to defend support levels. If crush demand remains near current projections and export commitments improve, the market could continue its typical seasonal tendency of holding strength through key growing-season months.
