A health study published on Nov. 14 in The Lancet was absolutely shocking. Nearly three-quarters of U.S. adults are overweight or obese, according to this sweeping new study!
The study revealed the striking rise of obesity rates nationwide since 1990, when just over half of adults were overweight or obese. It also showed how people are becoming overweight or obese at younger ages than in the past.
The study’s authors were particularly alarmed by the steep rise among children, more than one in three of whom are now overweight or obese. Without changes, the researchers forecast the number of overweight and obese Americans will continue to go up — reaching nearly 260 million people in 2050.
This is important to our health systems - and their ever-rising costs - because these conditions can raise the risk of diabetes, high blood pressure and heart disease, and shorten life spans.
A Congressional report released earlier this year predicted that obesity will result in up to $9.1 trillion in excess medical expenditures over the next 10 years.
However, there is hope coming from the pharmaceutical industry on this.
By now, we’ve all heard of the GLP-1 diabetes and weight-loss drugs from the likes of Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO). There is an even better weight-loss drug on the horizon, based on amylin - cagrilintide.
What Is Amylin?
Scientists first showed the ability of the pancreatic hormone amylin to reduce eating in 1991. The first amylin drug (pramlintide) was introduced to the market some 20 years ago. But it was complicated to take, and failed to gain much traction.
In the scientific world, amylin has long played second fiddle to GLP-1. But now, interest is growing.
After GLP-1, amylin has become one of the next-biggest targets being explored for weight loss. That’s because taking amylin is a gentler experience than taking a GLP-1 drug. Where a GLP-1 drug might remove a person’s desire to eat, amylin helps them stay satisfied for longer.
Novo Nordisk and Cagrilintide
Novo Nordisk’s amylin compound is called cagrilintide. Together with semaglutide, cagrilintide forms a hybrid the company calls CagriSema.
It is betting the duo will be greater than the sum of its parts, predicting it will help patients lose at least 25% of their body weight in about a year. That compares with up to 16% from Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy, and up to 22.5% from Eli Lilly’s rival Mounjaro when administered alongside lifestyle interventions such as improved diet, exercise and sleep.
That would make it the most effective treatment yet, in terms of pounds lost in a large clinical trial — potentially with less side effects than Wegovy alone. It is also exploring CagriSema’s efficacy as a treatment for type 2 diabetes.
GLP-1-based drugs have a well-documented record of causing nausea, vomiting, diarrhea and other unpleasant gastrointestinal side effects. That is why pharma companies are keen to offer an alternative that’s easier to tolerate and might also cause fewer complications, such as muscle loss and weight regain.
In addition, at a diabetes conference this summer in Madrid, Novo management suggested its amylin combination could also lead to more durable weight loss. That’s the holy grail in the obesity field.
This is why CagriSema’s trial results in December could have major implications for Novo Nordisk. Assuming the trials are successful, CagriSema will reach the market some time in 2026.
Buy NVO Stock
Novo Nordisk’s appetite-blocking shot semaglutide, sold under the brand names Ozempic and Wegovy, will probably become the world’s top-selling drug franchise next year. It broke open a market that could reach $130 billion by 2030, yet to keep its lead in this red-hot field, the company must prove that it has something even better.
CagriSema is likely that. Although competition will come in here as well, with both Lilly and Zealand Pharma (ZLDPF) also developing amylin drugs. Zealand’s drug is based solely on amylin.
The company also faces manufacturing hurdles. Not only does CagriSema require two different drug ingredients, Novo also had to design a new type of pen for patients to use to take it, with a unique dual-chamber system. That’s because semaglutide and cagrilintide need to remain separate until they’re injected. Novo is exploring a version of CagriSema that would allow its two drug ingredients to be mixed together in one syringe, though.
However, I believe Nordisk can pull it off, because the company has an incredible track record.
And let’s not forget that it is the global leader in diabetes treatments (insulin, etc.). Global diabetes rates have doubled over the past 30 years, with many middle- and low-income countries failing to provide sufferers with sufficient access to treatments like those Novo provides, according to a study published in The Lancet on Nov. 13.
NVO stock is a buy below $107.
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