Brazil's 2022 Map: Lula's Northeast, Bolsonaro's South, and Four Toss-Up States to Watch Sunday

Supporters of Brazil's President and presidential candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party (PT) wave flags as they take to the streets in support of his campaign in Brasilia on September 27, 2026. Brazil will hold presidential election on October 4, 2026. (Credit: Photo by Evaristo Sa / AFP via Getty Images)

Brazilians vote this Sunday, October 4, in a first round with Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro at the center of the race, and the yardstick most analysts reach for is the 2022 presidential runoff. That contest ended with Lula ahead by roughly 2.1 million ballots, yet the map underneath looked far more divided than the national number suggests.

A Nation Separated by Barely Two Points