Supporters of Brazil's former president (2019-2022) Jair Bolsonaro, on trial for his alleged role in an attempted coup, hold the word "Freedom" in a demonstration during Independence Day, in Sao Paulo, Brazil on September 7, 2025. Bolsonaro will test his political strength with demonstrations in the country's main cities, days before the Supreme Court deliver its verdict. The far-right leader, also a former army captain, risks up to 43 years in prison if convicted of attempting to cling to power after losing 2022 elections to his leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Credit: Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP) (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA/AFP via Getty Images-)
Brazil marks 204 years of independence today, but this year the flag-waving is competing for attention with a presidential race that, for the first time in the campaign, has flipped in the challenger's favor. As Brasília readies its annual military parade, a survey published just four days ago showed Senator Flávio Bolsonaro numerically ahead of President Lula in a head-to-head matchup — a shift that arrived right after the central bank's own numbers on rates and growth had already set the economic backdrop for October's vote.
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