Robert A Pape, Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats, posted a stark warning on X on 2 June 2026: 'Brace for new shocks in June.' The post, which has since drawn more than 30,000 views, was accompanied by a Bloomberg chart sourced from JPMorgan showing world oil inventories falling at a record pace toward what analysts call an 'operational stress level' — a threshold the bank estimates will be breached this month.
Pape noted that March estimates of the oil inventory countdown are now materialising, and warned that as more market participants simultaneously recognise the scale of the crisis, it will 'only add to Iran's growing leverage.' His warning did not emerge from a vacuum. It is backed by a convergence of data from the world's largest investment banks, all of which point to the same conclusion: the global oil buffer is disappearing faster than at any point in recorded history.
