Boris Johnson is braced for another week of misery as the Tories confront the prospect of losing two crunch by-elections.
Experts are predicting that, when voters go to the polls on Thursday, the Conservatives will be defeated by Labour in Wakefield and could even lose 'true blue' Tiverton and Honiton to the Lib Dems.
The by-elections follow a fresh sleaze row, after the PM's ethics adviser Lord Geidt dramatically quit over being asked to provide "advance cover" for the government's plan to flout international law over steel tariffs.
It also comes just days after the beleaguered premier survived a motion of no confidence, in which 148 MPs voted to oust him as leader.
The Prime Minister drew further ire from his own side on Friday when he pulled out of a speech to 'Red Wall' Tories, at a conference in Doncaster, to jet to Ukraine on Friday for a second meeting with the country's war hero leader, President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Far from boosting his standing, sources close to the Northern Research Group caucus of Conservative MPs raged that the PM snubbed the gathering as well as a day's campaigning in Wakefield, claiming he was ignoring domestic concerns and showing "contempt" for his own levelling up agenda.
Next week, when votes are being counted, Mr Johnson will be in Rwanda for the 2022 Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM).
But the PM's allies insist the Conservatives could hang on to one or even both of the key seats.
Given the Conservatives' plummeting poll ratings, is that possible? And what could happen next?
Will Labour retake Wakefield?
Keir Starmer will be desperate to prove his party can rekindle its election prospects in the so-called Red Wall, and winning this West Yorkshire seat would send a strong signal that is possible.
And the polling would suggest they are on course to do so, with one survey by JL Partners giving Labour a 20-point lead.
The by-election was triggered after the former Tory MP, Imran Ahmad Khan, was jailed for sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy.
The Conservative bidding to replace him, Nadeem Ahmed, has also had a difficult campaign, telling reporters this week that Khan was "one bad apple" and people should still vote Conservative because "we still trust GPs" after Harold Shipman killed 250 people.
Mr Johnson's pledge to "get Brexit done" saw his party win with a 3,358 majority in 2019 but Labour's Mary Creagh held the seat with similarly slim majorities.
Mr Johnson's decision to swerve campaigning in the Yorkshire seat perhaps tells its own story.
A senior Labour source predicted a “modest win” in Wakefield for its candidate Simon Lightwood, adding: “People shouldn’t be expecting a landslide - despite that poll putting us 20 points ahead.”
Defeat for Mr Johnson in a constituency which voted by 71% for Brexit in 2016 would be a huge blow to his personal brand.
Can the Lib Dems snatch Tiverton and Honiton?
The Lib Dems are rallying their troops to oust the Tories after ex-MP tory Neil Parish was forced to quit after he admitted looking at porn on his phone in the Commons.
Mr Parish has held the safe Conservative seat of Tiverton and Honiton in Devon since 1997 and won a 24,239 majority in December 2019.
But Ed Davey's party - which has secured two stunning victories over the Tories in recent months in Cheshire and Amersham and North Shropshire - were initially convinced they can win.
However, the party has dialled up its expectation management in recent weeks amid rumours that long-standing Tory voters in the West Country seat were more likely to stick than twist.
A Lib Dem source warned the Tiverton and Honiton by-election was still a “big challenge” and victory for the party was not guaranteed.
They said: “The majority is even bigger than North Shropshire was, and although we won that it wasn’t clear we were going to. We still have a lot of work to do.”
If the Tories are able to hang on, a cock-a-hoop Mr Johnson will doubtless visit the constituency and hold up the victory as proof he deserves to stay in post.
But if, as many predict, the Lib Dems can pull off yet blitzing by-election performance, then Mr Johnson could be in real trouble.
So, what happens next?
When the Tories took Hartlepool from Labour in a by-election barely a year ago, Mr Johnson was at the height of his powers.
Since then, the Partygate scandal, his bungled handling of the Covid pandemic and repeated allegations of Tory sleaze have taken a toll.
The chances of the Tories emerging on Friday having held both of Wakefield and their Devon stronghold are vanishingly small.
While defeats would pile pressure on the PM, they would not throw his premiership into immediate jeopardy.
Conservative Party rules mean that, having survived a confidence vote, the leader is protected from facing another challenge to his authority for 12 months.
Rumours are rife that MPs could move to change the rules to ensure a repeat of the vote could happen sooner.
But Mr Johnson, who has tried to bounce the news agenda by enflaming rows on so-called wedge issues like immigration, may have other plans.
Some of his allies believe the PM may plump for an early election in October, using the autumn conference season as a rallying point.
Given the PM faces an investigation by the Commons' Privileges Committee into whether he misled parliament over Partygate, and his government could face renewed scrutiny over Covid when the public inquiry into the pandemic begins in autumn, this could be his only path to remaining in No10.
What is clear, as Johnson-sceptic David Davis recently put it, is that Boris Johnson "will not leave Number 10 unless he's dragged out kicking and screaming".
And for those who no longer back the PM, such a moment could be a long way off.
