SEATTLE — It always seemed unlikely that Blackhawks forward Taylor Raddysh would duplicate his 20-goal 2022-23 breakout again this season, and that skepticism has proven justified.
Even after scoring his fifth goal of the season (in 29 games) in the Hawks’ 7-1 blowout loss to the Kraken on Thursday, he remains on pace to finish with just 14 goals — and he has tallied only two assists so far, as well.
Granted, the Hawks have struggled offensively across the board. But they were struggling offensively last season, too, when Raddysh emerged as a bright spot.
So why has he been less productive? At first glance, luck seems to be a significant factor. He’s actually recording more shots on goal than last season (6.6 vs. 6.0 per 60 minutes), but his shooting percentage has declined from an unsustainable 15.5% to 9.6%. Goalies have simply been saving a lot more of his shots.
“I’ve had some pretty good chances at times where, if the puck’s hot for you, it’s going in,” Raddysh said Thursday. “As long as you’re getting those chances, it’ll go in [eventually]. You don’t have to really change anything [other than] maybe loosen up when you get those chances and not be so tight on your stick.”
Digging deeper, though, it seems there’s a legitimate reason why goalies are saving a lot more of his shots: those shots are coming from less-dangerous areas than they used to.
Entering Thursday, just 33% of Raddysh’s shots on goal had originated from the low slot or around the net, down from 45% last season.
As a bigger guy with an underrated physical edge, Raddysh thrived on rebounds, jam-ins and close-in looks last season. He has been held to the perimeter more often this season, giving goalies more time and clearer sight lines to identify, react and position themselves to stop his shots.
Looking at it another way and focusing specifically on five-on-five play, Raddysh averaged 0.66 expected goals per 10 shot attempts last season. He’s averaging only 0.51 expected goals per 10 attempts this season, which ranks 11th out of 17 Hawks forwards. He just hasn’t been as dangerous.
“I’m going to score my goals in front of the net — that’s why I want to try to be,” Raddysh said. “So maybe I can get more in there and hopefully get some pucks through. I’ve just got to get back to being more in that area and quit veering off into different spots in the offensive zone.”
The good news is things seem to improving for the better recently. Raddysh has been much more offensively involved and threatening over the past couple weeks, in large part because he has been elevated to the bumper role on the top power-play unit.
Just within his last seven games, Raddysh has generated 16 of his 27 total high-danger scoring chances this season. Many of those have come on the power play, but even during five-on-five play, he has averaged 0.92 expected goals per 10 attempts during this six-game span. The fact he has recorded only two points in the seven games has truly been unlucky.
There are still signs he isn’t feeling as decisive and deadly as he felt last season, though. After unfortunately hitting the post on a two-on-one rush last Saturday against the Blues, he made the wrong decision not to shoot on a juicy net-front play a few minutes later — instead sending an errant pass toward Connor Murphy on the side — and then flubbed a three-on-one rush Tuesday against the Oilers.
He nicely finished Anthony Beauvillier’s set-up Thursday, but it marked his only shot on goal in an overall terrible team-wide performance.
As Raddysh inches toward restricted free agency in 2024, his production over the coming months will be worth following closely.
