HOLYROOD would retain a pro-independence majority after a Scottish parliamentary election, according to seat projections from a new poll.
It comes after a survey published by Redfield and Winton Strategies suggested that the SNP would be the largest party on the constituency vote, but trail Labour on the regional vote.
The poll found that, in a Holyrood election, 39% of people would give the SNP their constituency vote. This compared to 30% for Labour, 16% for the Tories, and 8% for the LibDems. The Scottish Greens and Reform polled at 3%, and Alba at 1%.
In that same election but on the regional list, Labour would win 30% of the vote, the poll suggested, while the SNP won 25%. The Tories were on 15%, with the Greens just one point behind on 14%. The LibDems polled at 9%, Alba at 4%, and Reform at 3%.
According to seat projections from the @LeftieStats account on Twitter/X, which is partnered with Novara Media, these results would translate into a pro-independence majority at the next Holyrood election.
The analysis said Humza Yousaf’s SNP would win 55 seats, down nine on their 2021 result of 64 – which was just one MSP away from a clean majority in the 129-seat parliament.
The Greens would pick up an extra seven seats however, putting them on 15 MSPs. As such, the combined parties would have 70 MSPs, five more than the 65 needed for a majority.
Anas Sarwar's (above) Labour would be the big winners in the Unionist camp under the projection, picking up 13 more MSPs to return 35, while the Tories would see their numbers halved from 31 to just 16.
The LibDems would double their representation from just four MSPs – which is fewer than the five needed to be considered a formal party group – to eight.
There would therefore be a pro-independence majority of 11, putting the 59 total Unionist MSPs against the 70 MSPs who would back Yes.
This would be a big win for Yousaf everything considered. And a massive win for the Greens - very rare to make gains like this as a junior partner. https://t.co/3DehA7VB1S
— Mark McGeoghegan (@markmcgeoghegan) September 6, 2023
Commenting on the projection on Twitter/X, pollster Mark McGeoghegan wrote: “This would be a big win for Yousaf everything considered.
“And a massive win for the Greens – very rare to make gains like this as a junior partner. For context, a study a few years back of [more than] 200 elections in European countries found that (controlling for previous vote) junior partners underperformed senior partners and opposition parties by three points.
“Making any gains is a departure from the norm.”
Green MSP Ross Greer commented: “A result like this after everything thrown at us by the unionists and vested interests would be extremely funny.”
The projection comes after similar results from a YouGov survey in mid-August.
Seat projections based on that poll, from Professor John Curtice and reported in the Times, suggested the SNP would remain the largest party but win 57 seats, while the Greens would return 10 MSPs.
SNP depute leader Keith Brown said of the poll: “The SNP remains the major political force in Scotland but we remain committed to working every day to deliver for the people of Scotland – and to fight for every vote.
“Humza Yousaf remains the people’s choice as First Minister by a considerable distance and his focus on the environment and a strong economy shows he is bang on the priorities of the people of Scotland.”
Redfield and Wilton Strategies polled 1100 Scots between September 2 and 4.
