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Politics

Paul Whiteley, Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex

Biden's low approval ratings don't mean he is bound to lose the 2024 US election -- here's why

Joe Biden United States Donald Trump Republican Barack Obama Electoral College George W Bush Real Clear Politics

US Democrats have been spooked by some recent polling which suggests that voters intend to pick Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden in some key states in the 2024 presidential election.

A CNN poll reported on the website Real Clear Politics on November 8 put current US president Biden on 45% and Trump on 49% in such a contest. This lead of 4% is statistically significant, which means that it cannot be attributed to errors which can occur with all polls but represents a genuine lead of the former president over the current incumbent.

This has prompted David Axelrod, an advisor to former president Barack Obama who has been credited with running the latter’s successful campaigns in 2008 and 2012, to tweet: “If he (Biden) continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it’s in his best interest or the country’s?” This illustrates the nervousness among some Democrats about the upcoming presidential election, due to take place on Tuesday November 5 2024.

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