There is a new trend in prediction markets: betting on whether Bitcoin will go up or down in the next five of fifteen minutes. On Polymarket, a five-minute wager on the price of the largest cryptocurrency has garnered more than $60 million in trading volume in a single day, according to Dune Analytics.
The minute-by-minute wagers on Bitcoin highlight the relative simplicity of bets on prediction markets. As opposed to traditional sports betting, which have an array of complex numbers relating to the spread, moneyline, and total points scored, the prediction market interface has a lower barrier to entry. Users can see what percentage of their peers are voting “yes” about a certain wager and how many are voting “no”.
