Pressure, both external and internal, is rapidly changing the international landscape for Israel. In 2011, Ehud Barak, then Israel’s defence minister, warned that Israel would face a “diplomatic-political tsunami” of international isolation and censure if it could not resolve the conflict with the Palestinians. More than a decade later, that wave has held off, but the current is moving swiftly in that direction.
In less than a week, three major moves occurred that would have been unthinkable prior to the Gaza War. First, on Monday May 20, the Office of the Prosecutor for the International Criminal Court (ICC) sought warrants for the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the defense minister, Yoav Gallant, for war crimes and crimes against humanity. The prosecutor, Karim Khan KC, also sought warrants for three Hamas leaders for atrocities committed during and after October 7.
Two days later the governments of Norway, Spain, and Ireland announced that they would recognise Palestinian statehood on May 28. While more than 140 countries in the United Nations already recognise Palestine as a state, most western European countries maintain that statehood should only be declared through a process of negotiations between Israel and Palestinians, rather than unilaterally. Though largely symbolic, the three states maintained that the move was necessary to preserve any chance of ever reaching a two-state solution.
