MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for Bellator 290.
Bellator 290 takes place Saturday at Kia Forum in Inglewood, Calif. The main card airs on CBS following prelims on MMA Junkie.
Ryan Bader (30-7 MMA, 10-2 BMMA)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’2″ Age: 39 Weight: 232 lbs. Reach: 74″
- Last fight: Decision win over Cheick Kongo (May 6, 2022)
- Camp: Power MMA Team (Arizona
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Bellator heavyweight champion
+ Former Bellator light heavyweight champ
+ 2x Division I All-American wrestler
+ 3x Pac-10 champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 12 knockout victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 10 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Good cardio and conditioning
+ Improved striking and footwork
^ Accurate left hand
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ Explosive power-double takedown
+ Good transitional grappler
^ Solid positional awareness and rides
+/- 4-0 in career rematches
Fedor Emelianenko (40-6 MMA, 4-2 BMMA)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’0″ Age: 46 Weight: 233 lbs. Reach: 76″
- Last fight: Knockout win over Tim Johnson (Oct. 23, 2021)
- Camp: Fedor Team (Russia)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Multiple MMA championships
^ Pride, Strikeforce, Rings, WAMMA
+ FIAS world combat sambo titles
+ Master of Sports in judo and sambo
+ 16 KO victories
+ 15 submission wins
+ 28 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Dangerous right hand
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Strong inside of the clinch
^ Strikes well off the breaks
+ Good transitional grappler
^ Crafty submissions and scrambles
+ Excellent ground striker
+/- 3-0-1 in career rematches
Point of interest: Striking the second time around
The main event for Bellator 290 features a rematch for the heavyweight title between sitting champion Ryan Bader and the legendary Fedor Emelianenko.
Their first meeting back in 2019 didn’t last long, as Bader was able to catch Emelianenko flush with his first hook off of a jab in the opening thirty seconds of the fight. Perhaps it’s the frustration of not being able to get anything going, but this outing appears to have stung Emelianenko on a competitive level given that the Russian legend has been deadset on running this back.
In Emelianenko’s defense, the style archetype is one that he is both familiar with and has traditionally gotten wins against. Whether we’re talking about post-prime victories over Chael Sonnen and Tim Johnson or Emelianenko’s heyday in PRIDE Fighting Championships, The Last Emperor’s all-terrain fighting style can create a rough night at the office for many.
A sambo champion who stormed the Japanese MMA scene in the early 2000s, violence has always been the tried and true theme throughout all the iterations of Emelianenko’s career.
Setting an aggressive pace and pressure that’s almost palpable, Emelianenko will come forward behind feints that make space seem fleeting. Pawing with his left-hand lackadaisically while maintaining a deadpan stare in his face, the 23-year pro keeps his right hand cocked and ready to release.
Once able to get a bite from his opponent, Emelianenko will crash the distance with casting-style punches in conjunction with his counterpart, something that helps him compensate for his reach. This approach, however, also makes for unforgiving collisions, a street that runs two ways in MMA.
Enter Bader.
Initially stepping onto the scene as a heavy-handed wrestler, Bader has slowly evolved into a well-rounded, stick-and-move stylist. Since his time spent working with striking coach Chaz Turner, we’ve seen legitimate improvements in Bader’s techniques.
With a focus on opening up Bader’s hips and stance, the two-time All-American wrestler has shown to more fluidly hit and move while stringing his strikes together.
As we saw in Bader’s fight with Valentin Moldavsky, the former UFC fighter can obviously hurt heavyweights with his big right hand. That said, I suspect that an active lead hand will still be crucial in this second go-around with Emelianenko.
Quietly developing an active and accurate left hand, Bader has been able to bludgeon the eyes of both Phil Davis and Rashad Evans with jabs, as well as drop Emelianenko and Muhammed Lawal with authoritative left hooks en route to winning the promotion’s heavyweight grand prix.
Nevertheless, Bader is still not beyond being timed and countered on the feet – so I’ll be curious to see how long he intends to stand this Saturday.
Point of interest: Potential grappling threats
Given that Emelianenko has been getting most of his work done in the striking department, no one should be shocked if Bader elects to strap on his wrestling shoes this weekend.
The Pac-10 champion has no issue in returning to his base when he needs to, which would probably be the smarter road against a threat like Emelianenko. Bader has an explosive power double-leg takedown that he always keeps in his back pocket and is more than capable of scoring or reversing from the clinch (as the American is not beyond hitting hip tosses of his own).
Still, as an acclaimed sambo stylist, Emelianenko will likely have something to say inside of these spaces.
The Russian always has deceptively strong hips to shut down takedown attempts, something that was last on display opposite Chael Sonnen. Emelianenko will also still threaten the occasional uchi mata (hip toss) or foot sweep from the clinch, but it’s usually utilized in the spirit of a Whizzer-kick in order to create space and strike off the breaks.
Even in PRIDE, a lot of Emelianenko’s grappling came off chaotic scrambles that saw him reverse positions (as well as fortunes) in the blink of an eye. However, those very skills of creating and capitalizing inside of scrambles will be something that Emelianenko will need to show is still intact this Saturday if he means to stay off the mat.
When losing wrestling stanzas in the past, Emelianenko historically has been able to utilize his under-sized heavyweight frame through explosive hip movements that allowed him to create space or secure armlocks. The problem, unfortunately, is that Emelianenko has been reluctant to demonstrate much of these skills in recent years (making me wonder what’s left in that regard).
Emelianenko was able to show some solid reversals and brief flashes of his vaunted ground-and-pound in his previously-mentioned meeting with Sonnen, I just suspect that the 46-year-old will be playing with fire if he looks to grapple with Bader for prolonged instances.
An excellent positional player, Bader likes to earn control time through punishing rides that allow him to put on beatings that make some opponents look like a video game character whose operator momentarily stepped away from the controller.
Utilizing cross-wrist rides (or “Dagestani handcuffs”) to secure UFC wins well before Khabib Nurmagomedov was popularizing these techniques inside of the octagon, Bader has been quietly continuing to sharpen his ground game under the care of fourth-degree Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt Jair Lourenco.
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are siding with the younger man, listing Bader -260 and Emelianenko +200 via Tipico Sportsbook.
Although I don’t disagree with who is favored, it’s nice to see the gambling public giving some respect to the chances of Emelianenko.
Sure, Emelianenko may have a ton of miles on him at 46 years of age, but the Russian legend still shows signs of life in his most recent sample sizes (as limited as they may be). In fact, one could argue that coaching and training alongside young lions like Vadim Nemkov and others have helped prolong the advanced stages of Emelianenko’s career.
Emelianenko may not be able to sustain the pace or impact that served as hellish pathways for a lot of his prime success, but he still seems to carry just enough of the deceptive speed and athleticism from his youth to stay dangerous early against a lot of the heavyweights he encounters.
Most importantly, Emelianenko is already used to fighting as an older man – – something that Bader may still be grappling with.
Bader, by his own admission, has already aged out of light heavyweight, dedicating himself to the heavyweight division from here on out. Bader is still able to out-wrestle bigger men to a decision if need be, but even his vaunted cardio appears more susceptible to flagging at this weight class.
Though I do believe this is something to keep an eye out for in regard to Bader’s future, I don’t suspect that it impacts the dynamic of this fight too much.
As someone who already knows not to expect the same fight twice in MMA, I think that this battle comes down to who can execute better in the first frame.
If Bader tries to recreate his glory from that past fight, then he’ll give Emelianenko the exact windows he needs to catch the American clean early (which is how Bader has typically fallen). But if Bader fights smart and looks to force Emelianenko to grapple, then I can see the sitting champion drowning his legendary counterpart with positional rides and punishing strikes down the stretch.
The old-school MMA fan inside me will absolutely be cheering for one of my all-time favorites in Emelianenko on fight night. As an analyst, however, I will officially be picking Bader to force a merciful stoppage by the end of the third round.
