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Fortune
Fortune
Eva Roytburg

‘Be careful what you wish for’: Top economist warns any additional interest rate cuts after today would signal the economy is slipping into danger

Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, during the Hoover Institution's George P. Shultz Memorial Lecture Series in Stanford, California, US, on Monday, Dec. 1, 2025. The Federal Reserve said it was monitoring community and regional banks' commercial real estate loan portfolios amid concerns over "elevated interest rates, tighter underwriting standards, and lower commercial property values." Photographer: Jason Henry/Bloomberg via Getty Images (Credit: Jason Henry—Bloomberg/Getty Images)

Claudia Sahm thinks investors should rethink what they’re salivating for.

The Federal Reserve is likely to deliver its third interest rate cut of the year on Wednesday, a move widely understood to be insurance against the bottom completely falling out of the labor market. But to Sahm—a former Fed economist, recession-indicator architect, and one of the central bank’s most closely watched outside interpreters—the more consequential question isn’t what the Fed does on Wednesday. It’s what additional cuts would mean.

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