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Fortune
Fortune
Will Daniel

'Be careful of false dawns': Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warns a recession is still 'more likely than not'

Lawrence Summers, president emeritus and professor at Harvard University, speaks during the Institute of International Finance (IIF) annual membership meeting in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, Oct. 14, 2022. (Credit: Ting Shen—Bloomberg/Getty Images)

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers is worried that investors and economists are becoming overly optimistic after year-over-year inflation cooled to 6.5% in December.

“One has to be careful of false dawns. If you think about it, the good news was inflation running in the 6’s, and that’s still inconceivably high by the standards of two or three years ago,” he told Bloomberg on Friday, adding that his forecast is still that a “recession this year is more likely than not.” 

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