Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Davos speech should unsettle Australian strategic thinkers, who have been raised in the belief the US alliance is the unshakeable foundation of Australia’s regional security.
Carney’s point – that American leadership is no longer a reliable anchor for the international system – had strong appeal in Europe and Canada. But it also highlights what is now clearly the weakest link in the US-Australia alliance – not American capability, but American reliability.
Deterrence is not just a matter of military hardware and presence. It relies on confidence that commitments will be honoured, risks will be borne, and allies will not be treated with disdain. When US policy becomes more transactional and less predictable, that confidence weakens — even if the underlying military power remains formidable.
