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By Mary Ellen McIntire, Daniela Altimari and Niels Lesniewski
With 40 days to go before Election Day, some Republicans are seeking to separate themselves from President Donald Trump over the Iran war as voters contend with strains on their pocketbooks.
“There’s voter fatigue with high gas prices, and high diesel prices in my part of the world,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota told reporters Wednesday. “That’s an economic frustration.”
That fatigue is starting to translate into new policy stances from Republican candidates.
Rep. Ashley Hinson, the Republican Senate nominee in Iowa, called this week for the Iran war to be “brought to a successful and immediate end,” as well as a suspension of the gas tax and a pause on diesel exports. A recent Marist poll found Hinson, who has voted against multiple House resolutions calling for an end to the Iran conflict, trailing Democratic opponent Josh Turek, 50 percent to 42 percent.
In Michigan, Republican nominee Mike Rogers made a similar call, saying in a campaign video that voters “can’t afford to wait” for the war to end. Rogers is in a tight fall matchup against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.
Staunch Trump allies also tried this week to distance themselves from the administration’s immigration enforcement policies.
Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall said officials need to “coordinate with our local law enforcement,” as Immigration and Customs Enforcement increases its activity in the state’s southwest. Marshall faces a surprisingly competitive election in a state that last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1932.
Former Maine Gov. Paul LePage, the Republican who once described himself as “Donald Trump before Donald Trump became popular,” has also taken a more nuanced position on immigration as he seeks to flip the state’s 2nd District. He said this week that a relative with a valid work permit was being deported and that ICE should focus on criminals, rather than people with work permits who have long been in the country. LePage also released an ad in which he spoke partly in French and said he supported “legal, not illegal immigration.”
Still, Republican campaign committees and super PACs continue to maintain a sizable cash advantage over their Democratic counterparts, which they are utilizing in the final six weeks of the campaign.
And Senate Republicans got some good news Thursday, with a New York Times/Siena University poll giving Republican Sen. Susan Collins an edge over Democrat Troy Jackson in Maine. Republicans likely also welcomed a new Times report from Alaska about volatility on the campaign of Democrat Mary Peltola and her former House office. Peltola is challenging GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan in a race that could be critical to Democratic hopes of flipping the Senate.
Starting gate
#TX15: Tejano musician Bobby Pulido’s run against Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz in a red-leaning South Texas seat will test whether a Democratic moderate with a populist bent – and a sprinkle of celebrity stardust – can overcome the political math of redistricting and convince voters to look past the “D” next to his name.
Crossing party lines: Maine Democrat Jared Golden, who is retiring from the House this year, bucked his party to endorse New York Republican Mike Lawler, one of the most vulnerable members in the chamber.
Pushing back: Republicans are once again stoking fears about transgender people in sports, schools and beyond. But this time, some Democrats are striking back. Our colleague Savannah Behrmann and Daniela looked at how some House and Senate candidates in battleground races have tried to separate themselves from their party’s commitment to transgender rights. Meanwhile, other Democrats have taken a different approach, dismissing the GOP attacks as a ploy to distract voters from the sputtering economy.
Missouri mess continued: The Supreme Court is expected to rule a third time on which congressional lines Missouri should use in this year’s elections after a federal appeals court said Monday that the state should use the Republican-drawn map used in last month’s primaries, Michael Macagnone reports.
More midterms: Roll Call editor-in-chief Jason Dick looks ahead to the sprint to November and beyond with elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections on the most recent edition of the “Political Theater” podcast.
RIP: Former Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl, who served for more than two decades in Congress, died last week due to complications from a neurological disease. Over his long career, Kyl was known as a “brainy and influential Republican whose views often became the party’s de facto stances on issues ranging from foreign policy to taxes,” our colleague Nick Eskow reported.
Good News Babes: The women of the D.C. press corps regained their title at the Congressional Women’s Softball Game, defeating a team of female members of Congress, 22-16. Organizers said the event raised more than $880,000 for breast cancer research and support. Roll Call’s Nina Heller has more.
ICYMI
Case closed: Florida Democratic Senate nominee Angie Nixon has settled a criminal case over her May sit-in to protest the state’s new Republican-drawn congressional map. The state legislator will pay a $250 fine and provide 15 hours of community service, the Florida Phoenix reported.
May the best gun win: Forget contests for Congress, state legislature and governor: Six historic firearms are competing to become Idaho’s official state gun. The ballot question is nonbinding, but the results will guide the legislature as it deliberates which gun will carry the designation.
Endorsements: Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul issued a preemptive endorsement of Rep. James R. Comer, should his fellow Republican launch a gubernatorial run in 2027. “I would think he would have a great shot,” Paul told The Washington Examiner. Elect Democratic Women, the group founded by female Democrats in Congress, is backing Stefany Shaheen for New Hampshire’s 1st District. The Latino Victory Fund is backing three Democratic House candidates: Eliott Rodriguez in Florida’s 27th, Patty Garcia in Illinois’ 4th and Teresa Benitez-Thompson in Nevada’s 2nd. And in Kansas, Democratic Senate nominee Adam Hamilton picked up the support of Arch “Pond” Naramore, who lost the Republican primary to Marshall last month.
Voter confusion: A Bowling Green State University/YouGov poll found that a quarter of likely Ohio voters thought Democrat Sherrod Brown was one of the state’s senators. Brown – who served three terms in the Senate before losing to Republican Bernie Moreno in 2024 – is seeking a comeback against appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted.
Target 2028: American Priorities PAC, which backs pro-Palestinian candidates, is already targeting several pro-Israel Democrats for defeat in 2028 primaries, Axios reported, including New York Reps. Ritchie Torres, Laura Gillen, Tom Suozzi and George Latimer. The super PAC backed several progressives who defeated establishment-linked opponents in Democratic primaries this year, including New York’s Darializa Avila Chevalier and Claire Valdez.
Nathan’s notes
Polls show Republicans struggling in battleground territory, but Trump’s job approval rating has sunk to a point at which they’re also fighting to flip seats they redrew in their favor, Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales writes.
Inside Elections changed the rating of a dozen races last week – all in Democrats favor.
What we’re reading
#MESEN: Maine Sen. Susan Collins has strongly denied any wrongdoing by her or her campaign after ProPublica reported that the Justice Department investigated her 2020 campaign over a pay-to-play scheme before the inquiry was quashed after Trump took office. Collins on Tuesday called the report a “political hit job.” Troy Jackson, her Democratic opponent in November, referred to the allegation as “corruption of the highest order,” according to The Associated Press.
The influencers and the election: The New York Times looked at the army of political content creators carpeting social media with cheap videos. “Functioning more like birdshot than a single bullet, these high-volume social media campaigns represent the new vanguard of modern political influence, saturating the internet with a topic until it is all but unavoidable,’’ the paper reported.
Star questions: Republican House candidate David Flippo embellished his military record on several occasions, The Washington Post reported. Flippo, an Air Force veteran running for Nevada’s open 2nd District, claimed multiple times in recent years that he received a Bronze Star “for valor.” The Post found that Flippo received a Bronze Star in 2004 for his service, but not the Bronze Star with valor, “a much rarer distinction that recognizes heroism in direct combat with an enemy.”
Dredging up digital dirt: New York magazine profiled CNN’s Andrew Kaczynski, who has perfected the art of digging through candidates’ digital past and finding the stuff they’d rather not talk about. But the task is growing harder thanks to the “enshittification“ of online search.
Purging posts: The Arizona Republic found that Democrat JoAnna Mendoza scoured her social media accounts before launching her bid to unseat Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani, removing posts related to policing, systemic racism and other topics.
The count: 12
That’s how many of the 13 Senate races rated as “in play” by Inside Elections have had at least one recent poll showing the Republican nominee trailing.
Nine of those 13 seats are currently held by Republicans, five of them with incumbents running for reelection. Ten of them are in states that voted for Trump in 2024.
If Republicans lose all 12 races, the Senate Democratic Caucus would grow to 55 members strong next year – its highest total since 2011.
Overall, Republican candidates in the 13 Senate races led in just 11 of the 63 polls released so far this month. Their opponents (12 Democrats and one independent) led in 47 of them, and five surveys reported a tie.
– By Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly
Key race: #CA40
Candidates: Two veteran GOP lawmakers are competing for a single seat in a redrawn Southern California district: Rep. Ken Calvert, the longest serving Republican in the California delegation, and third-term Rep. Young Kim. In the all-party primary in June, Calvert captured 35 percent of the vote to Kim’s 21 percent, with five Democrats and an unaffiliated candidate splitting the rest.
Why it matters: Gov. Gavin Newsom spearheaded last year’s mid-decade push to redraw California’s congressional boundaries. It was a rare successful effort by blue-state Democrats to counter the GOP’s redistricting advantage in red states such as Texas and Florida. Under the new map, Calvert’s red-leaning 41st District turned a deep shade of blue. He opted to challenge Kim in the 40th District, redrawn as a Republican vote sink.
Cash dash: Both Republicans are prodigious fundraisers. Kim reported raising $8.8 million at the end of June, while Calvert brought in $6.1 million. Kim entered July with $1.7 million banked compared with $1.5 million for her rival.
Backers: As this is a member-on-member race in a guaranteed Republican district, the NRCC and super PACs controlled by Speaker Mike Johnson have remained publicly neutral. But both candidates are touting endorsements from state and local leaders. Kim has the backing of her onetime boss, former California Rep. Ed Royce, along with Winning for Women and Maggie’s List, two groups that support conservative women. Calvert has the endorsement of Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, who ran for governor this year, and a host of former House colleagues from California, including Devin Nunes, Mary Bono, Howard “Buck” McKeon and Gary Miller.
What they’re saying: Both candidates have emphasized local concerns. As the House Defense Appropriations chairman, Calvert has highlighted his ability to steer federal money back to the district. Kim has stressed congressional ethics; she supports legislation that would ban members of Congress and their immediate families from buying individual stock and introduced a resolution that would bar lawmakers from using earmarks to boost their personal wealth.
Trump has not endorsed in the race, though both candidates have expressed support for his agenda. But in the waning weeks of the campaign, Kim has taken steps to distance herself from the president, removing the “America First” branding on her website, according to the Los Angeles Times.
Terrain: Under the new Democrat-drawn congressional map, parts of the rapidly growing Inland Empire, a broad swath of the state encompassing San Bernardino and Riverside counties, were folded into the 40th District. Yorba Linda, Aliso Viejo and other Orange County communities were carved out. The district also shifted from one that Trump carried by 2 points to one that would have backed him by 12 points, according to calculations by Inside Elections.
Wild card: Although the district became more Republican through redistricting, about 30 percent of its voters are registered Democrats. With no candidate of their own on the ballot, they could nonetheless play a major role in shaping the outcome of the race.
Coming up
As Congress prepares to depart for the campaign recess, stay tuned next week for the latest installment of Roll Call’s lists of the Most Vulnerable senators and House members.
Louisiana Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy and Missouri Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver II topped out most recent compilations in May, but a lot has happened since then. Cassidy went on to lose his primary, while Cleaver may get a reprieve if the Supreme Court again blocks use of Missouri’s new GOP-drawn map.
Photo finish
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