Asian stocks posted mixed trade at the end of the week, as tech shares in South Korea advanced even as investors weighed a cooling, AI-fuelled semiconductor rally, rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions, and upcoming US jobs data.
Thai shares traded sideways and closed slightly lower with foreign fund flows beginning to reverse as geopolitical risks ease, reducing Thailand's appeal as a defensive destination for global capital.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,606.44 to 1,631.58 points this week, before closing yesterday at 1,612 points, down 0.7% from the previous week, in daily turnover averaging 72.5 billion baht.
Brokerages were net buyers of 2.26 billion baht, followed by retail investors at 1.71 billion, and institutional investors at 1.7 billion. Foreign investors were net sellers of 5.67 billion baht.
NEWSMAKERS: Iran revealed a draft set of regulations controlling navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, banning US and Israeli vessels while proposing fees and penalties of up to 20% of cargo value for countries that cause damage to Iran.
President Donald Trump reiterated that he prefers reaching a deal with Iran rather than returning to military action, while insisting that vessels must be able to pass the Hormuz Strait freely without requiring Iranian permission, fees or restrictions.
Seven Opec+ countries agreed on Sunday to raise the oil production cap in September by 188,000 barrels per day from August levels.
The White House on Thursday imposed a series of price floors and a 15% tariff on products made from polysilicon, the raw material used in semiconductors and solar panels that is primarily produced by China.
A group of 25 Democratic-led states filed a lawsuit with the US Court of International Trade on Monday over the Trump's administration latest tariffs, claiming Trump exceeded his legal authority to implement the levies.
Japan and the US confirmed a rare, coordinated yen-buying intervention to halt the Japanese currency's slide to 40-year lows, with Tokyo signalling it is willing to take further action if needed.
Japan's cabinet approved a plan to reduce the consumption tax rate on food and beverages to 1% from the current 8% for two years, starting in April 2027, the first reduction since it was introduced in 1989.
Trump sharply criticised oil giants Exxon and Chevron of making "too much money" off soaring fuel prices due to the Iran war, alleging they should give some of the funds "back to the public".
US consumers' one-year inflation expectations declined to 4.2% year-on-year, below the market projection and June's 4.6%, while five-year inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.3%.
ADP non-farm payroll rose by 44,000, below the consensus estimate of 68,000 and down from 95,000 in June, mainly driven by layoffs and job reductions in the services sector, particularly leisure & hospitality and trade & transport.
The US's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of the Institute for Supply Management inched up less than expected by 0.1 percentage point in July to 54.1%, as new orders rose but cost was higher due to the Middle East war.
China's services PMI compiled by S&P Global fell to 50.4 last month from 54.1 in June, its slowest pace since September 2024 as growth in activity and new business moderated. Manufacturing PMI fell more than forecast to 50.9 from 51.7.
Alberto Musalem, president of the St Louis Fed, maintained a hawkish stance, stating that this week's US Treasury sell-off reflects the need for the Federal Reserve to reinforce its inflation-fighting credibility through higher interest rates.
CME FedWatch assigns a 65% probability of a Fed rate hike at the September meeting, down from 82% last week.
South Korea's July 2026 exports soared 62.8% year-on-year to US$98.9 billion, exceeding the market projection of 59% and following 70.7% the previous month. Semiconductor exports surged 179%, while computer exports jumped 404%.
Elon Musk's SpaceX and Tesla will initially invest $16.8 billion to build Terafab, an advanced AI semiconductor complex in Texas, as the companies race to secure the chip capacity the billionaire has called essential to their future.
SpaceX said revenue nearly doubled to $7.8 billion in the June quarter from $4.1 billion a year earlier, while operating losses narrowed to $143 million from $970 million. The rocket company said its AI capital spending jumped to $15.8 billion from $749 million year-on-year.
Shares in UK-based AstraZeneca dropped by nearly 3% at market open following a report the drugmaker is in talks with oncology rival Bristol Myers Squibb regarding a merger.
Thailand and Indonesia agreed on Monday to increase bilateral trade to $20 billion by 2030 and adopted a strategic partnership roadmap to expand cooperation across multiple sectors during Anutin Charnvirakul's visit to Jakarta.
Thailand will not allow SpaceX or other US companies to establish wholly foreign-owned satellite telecom businesses, citing national sovereignty, though the issue is part of trade negotiations with the US, said Kirida Bhaopichitr, assistant to the commerce minister.
Thailand's headline consumer price index rose 1.95% in July year-on-year, following a 2.42% uptick in June, with the Commerce Ministry maintaining its full-year forecast at 1.5-2.5%.
The government plans to launch tourism stimulus projects worth 2.45 billion baht in September, relying on funding from the borrowing decree of 200 billion baht allocated to ease cost of living pressures amid the surge in energy prices, said Tourism and Sports Minister Surasak Phancharoenworakul.
The cabinet approved on Wednesday establishing the Data Center Business Policy Committee to formulate policy frameworks and oversee the expansion of the sector.
The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking upgraded its 2026 Thai export growth forecast to 8-10% from a contraction as a result of rising global demand for artificial intelligence and technology goods.
The cabinet approved a budget of 7.2 billion baht to strengthen water security in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) from fiscal 2027-2033, meeting rising water demand from households, agriculture, industry and development within the EEC.
The Board of Investment announced four new approval criteria for future data centre investment, saying the projects must deliver tangible benefits to Thailand, create high-skill employment, utilise Thai supply chains, and strengthen the domestic AI system.
Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said the ministry is ready to consider Phase 2 of the co-payment scheme following positive feedback, possibly adjusting the co-pay contribution to a 50:50 split.
Foreign tourist arrivals to Thailand for the week ending Aug 2 totalled 567,312, down 2.9% from previous week due to security concerns along the southern border. Long-haul arrivals expanded, bringing total arrivals for the first seven months to 18.5 million.
China Mobile International Holdings Ltd is considering a partial sale of its 7.8% stake in True Corporation as part of portfolio management, the Thai firm said in a filing to the SET on Tuesday.
Thai Life Assurance Association forecasts 2026 life insurance premiums to grow 2.5-3.5%, driven by an ageing society, health consciousness and rising medical expenses.
COMING UP: On Monday, Japan releases current account data. On Tuesday, Australia decides on interest rates, the US announces ADP employment changes and existing home sales. On Wednesday, the US and Germany release CPI and the US reports crude oil inventory. On Thursday, the UK reports GDP, industrial production, trade balance, the Producer Price Index, and initial jobless claims, while China reports new loans data. On Friday, the US announces retail sales and business inventories data.
Locally, on Tuesday Bualuang Securities discusses the investment outlook for the second half of 2026.
STOCK TO WATCH: Asia Plus Securities recommends a sector rotation strategy, focusing on domestic plays with attractive valuations, including banking plays KBANK and BBL, supported by low price-to-book value ratios and dividend yields above 4%.
The brokerage also favours TU and ITC in the food sector and SJWD in logistics as these stocks benefit from lower oil prices, while ADVANC and TRUE as ICT has resilient earnings. In the healthcare sector, BDMS has an attractive valuation and a dividend yield rising above 4%.
InnovestX Securities sees progress in US-Iran peace talks, which could ease concerns over Strait of Hormuz shipping, while the second-quarter earnings of listed companies are expected to support market sentiment. However, concerns remain over potential Fed rate hikes following hawkish comments from officials. The brokerage recommends TIDLOR, GULF and PR9 as stocks to watch.
TECHNICAL VIEW: Krungsri Securities sees support at 1,587 points next week and resistance at 1,645. InnovestX Securities sees support at 1,580 and resistance at 1,645.
