With the Eastern Conference play-in tournament for the playoffs now complete, the Houston Rockets have clarity on the odds figures for their own first-round pick entering the May 12 draft lottery.
That lottery, which sorts through the selections of the league’s 14 non-playoff teams through weighted odds, determines the first four picks of the 2024 NBA draft. Beyond that, it’s all sorted by record.
Even though Atlanta (36-46) and Chicago (39-43) had worse records than Houston (41-41), they would have fallen behind the Rockets in the draft order, should either have advanced to the playoffs. (Playoff teams are sorted from No. 15 to No. 30 in the overall order.)
However, because both the Hawks and Bulls were eliminated in the East play-in tournament, Houston ultimately sticks with the No. 12 odds slot that it had following the 2023-24 regular season.
Houston’s 2024 first-round pick will head to Oklahoma City (owing to the 2019 Chris Paul-Russell Westbrook trade) unless it is among those top-four lottery selections. In that scenario, the Rockets would convey a second-round pick to the Thunder, instead.
Based on that No. 12 odds slot, here’s a look at the possibilities:
- No. 1: 1.5%
- No. 2: 1.7%
- No. 3: 1.9%
- No. 4: 2.1%
- No. 12 or lower (pick goes to OKC): 92.9%
In short, Houston has only a 7.1% chance of keeping its pick.
One silver lining for the Rockets is that they do own Brooklyn’s 2024 first-round pick (from the 2021 James Harden trade), and that pick has no protections and will convey, no matter what.
Moreover, with Brooklyn owning the No. 9 odds slot, that pick is highly likely to be ahead of the Houston pick in the order. The only way the Rockets could be ahead of the Nets in the order would be if Houston defies the odds to win one of the four lottery picks — and in that scenario, they would own both selections.
OFFICIAL: The Houston #Rockets will be in the 12-spot entering the NBA Draft Lottery next month.
— David Weiner #🟦 (@BimaThug) April 20, 2024
