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Seattle, Washington-based Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is a leading global coffee company that roasts, markets, and retails coffee through its North America, International, and Channel Development segments. With a market capitalization of $118.1 billion, the company sells coffee, tea, beverages, food, and packaged products while licensing its brands through stores, grocery, and foodservice channels.
Shares of the world's largest coffeehouse chain have underperformed the broader market considerably over the past year. SBUX has climbed 9.8% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 16%. However, the stock has gained 23.1% year-to-date, outperforming the index's 8.3% gain.
Narrowing the comparison, SBUX has outperformed the Invesco Food & Beverage ETF (PBJ), which has plunged marginally over the past year. The stock has also outperformed the ETF’s 7.6% rise on a year-to-date basis.
Starbucks has lagged the broader market over the past year due to weak same-store sales, slowing revenue expectations, and declining profitability.
However, sentiment turned more bullish on Jul. 9, when Starbucks shares climbed 3.1% following reports that the coffee chain is building in-house AI tools to improve operational efficiency, reduce dependence on third-party software vendors, and cut costs. The effort is part of Starbucks' broader $2 billion cost-saving initiative, which includes $400 million in software-related savings, strengthening investor confidence in the company's margin improvement strategy and long-term earnings potential.
For the current fiscal year, ending in September 2026, analysts expect SBUX’s EPS to increase 13.2% to $2.41 on a diluted basis. The company beat the consensus estimate in only one of the last four quarters, while missing estimates in the remaining three.
Among the 34 analysts covering SBUX stock, the consensus rating is “Moderate Buy.” This is based on 14 “Strong Buy” ratings, two “Moderate Buys,” 14 “Hold,” one “Moderate Sell,” and three “Strong Sell” ratings.
The configuration has been consistent over the past months.
On July 24, UBS analyst Dennis Geiger maintained a "Hold" rating and a $105 price target on Starbucks, citing confidence that the company's turnaround strategy, improving U.S. same-store sales, and cost savings initiatives could support margin recovery and long-term growth, while remaining cautious on valuation.
The mean price target of $106.41 represents a 2.7% premium to SBUX’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $137 suggests an upside potential of 32.2%.
