The ag commentary industry likes to always be bullish, because that's what folks like to hear.
-
We can see this play out in weekly export sales and shipments numbers for grains.
Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity analysis. The reality is we can see export demand, particularly for US corn and soybeans, has been decreasing since the last week of October 2024/first week of November 2024.
There is an unwritten rule when it comes to analysis and commentary of agricultural commodities that says, “Everything is always bullish”. A few examples: Continued low cattle numbers decreasing feed demand for corn? Bullish (for corn)! The US president handing out hardship waivers to US refineries so they don’t have to use ethanol? Bullish!! USDA increasing its production guess? Bullish!!! The logic of this last one? Because everyone knows someone who knows someone who knows someone in southwest North Dakota who has a dry field, so obviously USDA is purposely overestimating national production. (I wish I was kidding.) And then there’s exports where we have the US severing ties with the world’s largest buyer of soybeans in a made-for-social media trade war. Of course that’s bullish. How? Most of US ag commentary industry will start the familiar chant, “Trade wars are good and easy to win. Trade wars are good and easy to win…”. That’s just how it is these days. As I said, everything is always bullish.
