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Barchart
Barchart
Rich Asplund

Arabica Coffee Climbs to a Record High on Supply Woes

Ice Brazil USDA Cecafe the International Coffee Organization Vietnam Volcafe

March arabica coffee (KCH25) Thursday closed up +2.10 (+0.61%), and March ICE robusta coffee (RMH25) closed up +30 (+0.55%).

Coffee prices Thursday extended this week's rally, with arabica posting a new record nearest-futures high and robusta posting a 6-week high.   The outlook for a smaller coffee crop in Brazil that leads to tighter supplies has sparked fund buying of coffee.  On December 17, Volcafe cut its 2025/26 Brazil arabica coffee production estimate to 34.4 million bags, down by about 11 million bags from a September estimate after a crop tour revealed the severity of an extended drought in Brazil.  Volcafe projects a global 2025/26 arabica coffee deficit of -8.5 million bags, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits.

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