Andrew Gwynne has said he will resign as an MP over his ill health, paving the way for Andy Burnham to potentially return to parliament – unless the Greater Manchester mayor is blocked by Keir Starmer.
On Thursday, Gwynne reached a settlement with the Commons that would allow him to retire, which would trigger a byelection. Burnham is said to be seeking a return to parliament to stand for the Labour leadership if there is a challenge to Starmer, but was thought to have limited options for a byelection in the north-west.
Gwynne, the MP for Gorton and Denton in Greater Manchester, had previously denied planning early retirement. But in a statement he said that his health had deteriorated to such an extent that he was forced to retire on medical grounds.
He said that, while he was proud of his achievements in parliament, he had “suffered significant ill-health over most of the 21 years I’ve served as an MP”.
He called representing his home community the “honour of my life”, adding that he had “suffered significant ill health”. Quoting from his doctor’s note, he said he was “extremely vulnerable and further stress will cause rapid deterioration”.
“I wish the Labour government every success in meeting our country’s challenges head-on and providing the real change the people of Britain voted for in 2024,” Gwynne added.
The MP, who is suspended from the Labour party, had been offered a deal on his MP’s pension that would allow him to retire on medical grounds.
Friends of the MP told the Guardian that would mean he would receive a yearly payout until he reached retirement age, when he would be entitled to the full pension.
Gwynne is still under parliamentary standards investigation, which was initiated last year after he was found to have been in a WhatsApp group – called Trigger Me Timbers – that shared vulgar and inflammatory comments about voters and other MPs. He was suspended from the party after the messages came to light.
When asked about Burnham’s potential return, Starmer said it was “early stages”, adding: “Andy Burnham is doing an excellent job as mayor of Manchester. We work very closely together.
“Last year, we were responding together to the terrible attack on a synagogue in Manchester, more recently, we were working together on Northern Powerhouse Rail. I think Andy would acknowledge that working with this government has been much better than the experience he had of working with previous governments.”
The Manchester backbencher was said by some MPs to have reached an agreement with Burnham to allow the Greater Manchester mayor to stand in his seat after his early retirement, but both men denied that there had been any pact.
Several allies of Gwynne said relations were not good since the height of the speculation about Burnham’s future.
Burnham has made no secret of his ambitions. He prompted outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers after he said before the Labour conference last year that many MPs had urged him to run for Labour leader.
But allies have cautioned not to overstate the extent of planning that might be under way, suggesting that he was passionate about his current job and would only ever make a decision to return to Westminster if a seat became available.
“People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer,” one said.
Burnham would have no guarantee of the nomination should he decide to try to return to Westminster in a byelection, with the candidate selected by a panel of members from the party’s ruling national executive committee (NEC).
Five members of the NEC told the Guardian they believed it would be impossible for Burnham to make it through selection given the number of Starmer allies on the body and how they could be handpicked to sit on the selection panel.
They said this was not just down to personal animosity to Burnham, but the great cost and uncertainty of a mayoral byelection. It could mean that about £500,000 of party funding was diverted from other races across Britain.
“What if Reform won the Greater Manchester mayoralty? It would be totemic for them: their biggest win yet. We would be mad to let that happen,” one said.
Another added: “It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources when we are fighting other crucial elections. It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed.”
However, other senior party figures suggested that even though the body was dominated by Starmer loyalists there would be significant disquiet among MPs, the unions and party members should it try to block Burnham. “I don’t think anybody wants a big fight within the NEC,” one said. “That’s not where anybody wants to end up.”
The unions are also a significant force on the party’s ruling body, holding 14 out of the 25 seats. The Fire Brigades Union general secretary, Steve Wright, said: “It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked from seeking selection as Labour’s byelection candidate in this seat.”
There are historic examples of the full NEC rejecting shortlists drawn up by the selection panel because they did not initially include certain candidates, such as Jonathan Reynolds in Stalybridge and Tristram Hunt in Stoke-on-Trent Central.
It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist in order to stop his nomination.
Labour figures in Greater Manchester suggested that Bev Craig, the leader of Manchester city council, could be asked to run in the byelection as No 10’s preferred candidate. She is well liked inside Downing Street and Starmer himself called her last year to tell her she was being awarded an OBE.
A party insider suggested that Downing Street had been closely observing the bounce in support that Kemi Badenoch received for acting decisively by sacking Robert Jenrick last week.
Another warned that MPs and members were already concerned about the risk of destabilising the party with leadership speculation before the local and devolved elections in May. “I don’t think anybody would thank Andy for triggering more of that,” one said.
Gwynne has a 13,400 majority in the seat, which lies to the south-east of Manchester. Reform UK is likely to mount a significant challenge in any byelection, capitalising on support in the Tameside part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger, Greater Manchester part of the seat, although could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Burnham return to parliament, he would have to secure the backing of 80 Labour MPs to challenge Starmer.
