Space technology company Firefly Aerospace (FLY) returned to flight on March 11 after a setback, which led to a 12.8% intraday rise in the company’s stock on March 12. FLY’s stock is red-hot right now, gaining 23.58% over the past month.
The company’s Alpha Flight 7 Stairway to Seven mission lifted off from Firefly’s Space Launch Complex 2 at the Vandenberg Space Force Base, completed an orbital insertion, and delivered a demonstrator payload for Lockheed Martin (LMT). The company was successful after a pre-launch explosion five months ago that destroyed a previous Alpha booster and temporarily grounded the program.
And, analysts have been quite bullish on the stock, with Cantor Fitzgerald assigning the company a Street-high $65 price target, implying an upside of close to 200% from current levels. Amid this, we take a closer look at Firefly Aerospace now…
About Firefly Aerospace Stock
Firefly Aerospace develops small- and medium-lift launch vehicles, lunar landers, and orbital vehicles for responsive space access. Its operations focus on affordable, reliable launches and in-space services using advanced composites and propulsion tech for commercial and government customers. Headquartered in Cedar Park, Texas, it supports end-to-end missions from production to orbit. The company has a market capitalization of $3.74 billion.
The space technology company went public via an IPO last year that was extremely successful, as the stock gained more than 34% on its Nasdaq debut. However, the stock did not fare well on Wall Street after that. Over the past six months, the stock has dropped 45.4%. However, over the past month, it has gained 24%.
On a forward-adjusted basis, Firefly Aerospace’s price-to-sales ratio of 24.42x is considerably stretched compared to the industry average of 1.78x.
Firefly Aerospace Reported Better Than Expected Q3 Results
For the third quarter of fiscal 2025, Firefly Aerospace’s revenue increased 37.6% year-over-year (YOY) to $30.78 million, which was higher than the $28.90 million that Wall Street analysts had expected. Firefly Aerospace CEO Jason Kim highlighted the team's “steady executions” across multiple contracts.
The company also landed two contracts from NASA during the quarter. Firefly Aerospace was awarded the Blue Ghost Mission 4 contract worth $176.70 million for lunar payload delivery to the Moon’s south pole and the $10 million Blue Ghost Mission 1 contract addendum for the collection of additional lunar data. And, Firefly closed the acquisition of SciTec, which advances Firefly’s full-spectrum space services with SciTec’s proven defense software analytics, remote sensing, and multi-sensor data expertise.
The company recorded $8.49 million in gross profit for Q3, up 9.3% from the prior-year period. It also recorded a quarterly adjusted loss per share of $0.33. While losses widened YOY, they were better than the $0.42 per-share loss analysts had expected. For fiscal 2026, Wall Street analysts expect Firefly Aerospace’s bottom line losses to narrow by 60.2% YOY to $1.21 loss per share. Firefly is set to report its Q4 results on Mar. 19, after the market closes.
What Do Analysts Think About Firefly Aerospace Stock?
Following a broader analysis of the aerospace and defense sector in January, analysts at Goldman Sachs raised the firm’s price target from $29 to $32 while maintaining a “Neutral” rating on the stock. In a research note, analyst Anthony Valentini noted favorable conditions for aerospace OEMs, as market demand outpaces supply. Morgan Stanley analyst Kristine Liwag also raised the price target from $27 to $33, while keeping an “Equal Weight” rating, as the firm adjusted Firefly Aerospace’s valuation ahead of the Flight 7 mission.
In December, analysts at KeyBanc initiated coverage of Firefly Aerospace with a “Sector Weight” rating. The firm cited FLY’s early spacecraft momentum in an emerging market with a growing TAM, despite the company's developing launch history following prior challenges. In November, Deutsche Bank upgraded Firefly Aerospace’s stock from “Hold” to “Buy” after the company resolved the Alpha First stage engine issue, providing clearer prospects for Firefly’s Flight 7 launch.
Firefly Aerospace has become a soundly popular name on Wall Street, with analysts awarding it a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating overall. Of the nine analysts rating the stock, five analysts have given it a “Strong Buy” rating, while four analysts are taking the middle-of-the-road approach with a “Hold” rating. The consensus price target of $38.28 represents a 59% upside from current levels. Moreover, the Street-high price target of $65 indicates a 170% upside.
