The Patna High Court’s August 1 judgment, upholding the Bihar government’s decision to conduct a caste-based survey in the State, is likely to boost the political fortunes of ruling coalition parties such as the Janata Dal (United) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal, both of which claim to represent marginalised communities. However, some sceptics have a different view of the political implications of the verdict, suggesting that it could actually pave the way for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar to make yet another turnaround to remain in power.
Six petitions against the survey had been filed in the Patna High Court. The State government argued that it was well within its rights to conduct such a caste-based survey “to get verified data for the welfare measures to be taken for different caste groups”. Though the Opposition BJP had earlier supported the government’s move in all-party meetings and in the State Assembly, it later changed its tune. When Bihar BJP leaders and MLAs sensed that the ruling coalition was gaining momentum from the survey, they started saying that it would damage the State’s social fabric.
Following the High Court’s order that the government’s decision was “perfectly valid”, the third phase of the caste-based survey began on Wednesday, and is likely to be completed by the end of August. With the first two phases having been conducted in January and April-May respectively, the final survey report can be expected in September, less than a year before the 2024 general election. The last caste census in India took place in the pre-Independence era in 1931, and had identified 74 caste categories in Bihar.
“The caste-based survey report will definitely provide political and electoral dividend to parties which have allegedly been doing caste identity politics like Rashtriya Janata Dal and JD(U). Through this survey report they would be able to counter BJP’s strategy to bring all non-Yadav splintered Other Backward Class (OBC) groups into one fold,” political analyst Ajay Kumar told The Hindu. The survey report will consolidate the political support of various caste groups, especially marginalised groups, and “that will suit parties like JD(U) and RJD” which claim to represent these communities, he added.
Nitish’s ‘turnarounds’
However, some were sceptical of the timing of the court’s verdict in the Chief Minister’s favour, months ahead of the Lok Sabha poll. They also pointed to Union Minister Ramdas Athawale’s statement in Patna last week, saying that Mr. Kumar would be welcome to return to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) fold.
“Mr. Kumar is known for making political turnarounds and through this court’s decision he may come closer to the BJP again to strike a last political turnaround to remain stick to the power,” said a political observer of the State who teaches political science at a college in the capital but wished to be anonymous. “The BJP too will be happy to shake hands with Mr. Kumar again to get maximum number of seats in the upcoming LS poll in 2024 as we all know Bihar sends 40 MPs to Parliament,” he added.
In the 2019 general election, the NDA — which then included the BJP, the JD(U), and the Lok Janshakti Party — had won 39 seats from Bihar. The Congress had only won one seat in Kishanganj. “Today, the BJP needs Mr. Kumar more than Mr. Kumar needs the BJP as the Lok Sabha elections are in 2024, while the State Assembly polls are due in 2025,” the political science professor added.
“Politics is all about uncertainties and what is obvious often does not happen in politics. Any party can go any extra mile at any point of time to remain in power,” quipped Mr. Ajay Kumar, adding that it was “difficult to predict Mr. Kumar’s next political move.”
Dismissing the writ petitions against the survey, the High Court judgment said: “…we find the action of the State to be perfectly valid, initiated with due competence, with legitimate aim of providing ‘Development with Justice’; as proclaimed in the address to both Houses and the actual survey to have neither exercised nor contemplated any coercion to divulge the details and having passed the test of proportionally, thus not having violated the rights of privacy of the individual especially since it is in furtherance of a compelling public interest which in effect is the legitimate State interest.”
The court’s judgment has made leaders and workers of the ruling coalition parties such as the JD(U) and the RJD ebullient and euphoric over its “far reaching implications in days to come”.
