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Fortune
Fortune
Eleanor Pringle

America is ‘going broke slowly’ says J.P. Morgan, as national debt balloons and tariff revenue looks shaky

U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks during a meeting with Finland President Alexander Stubb in the Oval Office at the the White House White House on October 09, 2025 in Washington, DC (Credit: Anna Moneymaker—Getty Images)
  • J.P. Morgan’s David Kelly warned this week that while America is “going broke” it’s doing so slowly enough that markets aren’t panicking yet. With U.S. national debt now topping $37.8 trillion and interest payments exceeding $1.2 trillion, Kelly said the debt-to-GDP ratio—already at 99.9%—will likely keep rising even under moderate growth. Despite tariff revenues and temporary deficit relief, he cautioned that political choices or a slowdown could quickly worsen the fiscal picture, urging investors to diversify away from U.S. assets before “going broke slowly” turns fast.

America is going broke, J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s chief global strategist, David Kelly, wrote in a note this week, but no one is panicking yet because the government is going broke slowly.

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