US Election betting is gaining steam on Polymarket, as $100M in Presidential election bets sees Trump take the lead on Kamala.
Presidential nominee Kamala Harris is down to 46% on Polymarket. Now ask yourself: Who is actually leading in this election?
Real Clear Polling says that Donald Trump is ahead, and Trump is leading on the crypto-powered Polymarket. But 538 and historian Allan Lichtman says that Harris is leading.
So who's ahead?
No clue. What we do know is Americans are all in on this election, with Polymarket's open interest skyrocketing 1,429% this year—from $7 million to $107 million. Over 70% of the bets are centered around the election.
The fun in crypto has moved from memes to Polymarket.
Why Are Americans Obsessed With Polymarket?
It's hard to know if Polymarket is unbiased, as Silicon Valley Angel Investor Peter Thiel (who is BFFs with Republican VP JD Vance) funded it.
While things are oscillating toward Trump now, the odds could very well be 50/50 on election day, and the House is going to make a couple of million just setting up the line.
The boom in prediction markets signals big changes for crypto. As more people dive into crypto-based platforms, it could pave the way for mainstream adoption, especially among politically curious blockchain newcomers.
As Polymarket grows and handles more funds, the risk of a regulatory clampdown is almost invertible.
We'll see how markets freak out after the first (technically second) presidential debate on September 10.
The debate can't happen soon enough, and we hope it's at least half as good as the Biden one.
What's Next For Polymarket
PredictIt was the original and easily accessible P2P politics betting site but Polymarket has far surpassed it.
Other crypto betting platforms are trying to enter the mix, like Drift, a Solana prediction market, which debuted BET with an impressive $20 million in a day. However, its daily volume has since slipped below $1 million.
For now, Polymarket is the premier platform for betting on Taylor Swift's nail color, Fed rate cuts, or debate night bingo.
