A rise in Covid cases and hospital admissions in the UK alongside warnings of a bumper flu season is causing concerns of a dual outbreak in infections over the winter period.
Latest data shows there has been a 56% rise in the seven-day average of people testing positive for Covid, following a drop in infections over summer.
Figures from the UK Health Security Agency showed 6,831 people tested positive for Covid on September 21, with the seven-day average of positive tests sitting at 5,807.
This marked a dramatic increase from the 3,533 positive cases reported on August 21, when the seven-day average was 3,705 cases.
The number of people being hospitalised with Covid had also increased month-on-month, with 858 hospital admissions and a seven-day average of 756 on September 21, in comparison to the 605 Covid patients admitted to hospital and a 650 average on August 21.
Despite this, the Office for National Statistics has said there is no clear evidence of an autumn Covid wave starting.
Sarah Crofts, ONS deputy director for the Covid-19 infection survey, said it was “too early to identify whether this is the start of a new wave”.
But Dr Mary Ramsay, director of public health programmes at the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), said it was “clear now that we are seeing an increase” in levels of Covid-19.
Meanwhile, health officials are warning this winter could see flu cases explode once more, with the nation heading into the first winter in two years free from any restrictions.
As temperatures drop and concerns rise over another Covid-19 wave, Professor Azeem Majeed, professor of public health at Imperial College, London, has answered some of our questions around what to expect going into autumn and winter.
Should we expect another wave of Covid-19 as the UK enters the colder months?
Professor Majeed believed it "likely" the UK will see further waves of Covid-19 over the colder months
"We have seen dropping rates during August but over the last week there are some signs that rates are picking up again," he told the Mirror.
“Obviously in Autumn and Winter, people spend more time indoors as the weather cools down. We usually find that outbreaks of viral infections are more common."
Professor Majeed said this would likely put more pressure on the NHS for primary care, urgent care and inpatient care.
Why is flu also a much bigger problem than last year?
"We’ve been quite lucky for the last few winters that we have had very low rates of flu. But this winter it does look like the rates will probably a lot higher than the previous two winters.
"Because flu rates have been low in recent years, this means that people will have less immunity from a previous infection.
"The end of Covid-19 control measures - such as face masks and social distancing - combined with the return of normal social activities also increase the likelihood of a large flu outbreak this winter."
Should boosters be offered to everyone, not just the over 50s?
Professor Majeed thought it “unlikely” the government would widen the booster jab programme to younger age brackets unless there was a “very, very large level of infection with lots of people falling seriously ill and putting pressure on the NHS”.
“I think the government will probably try to hold out with the current programme," he said.
“Currently the push is for over 50s and those under 50 with medical problems because they are the ones at the highest risk of illness. I think young 20-year-olds who have had previous vaccines, they are probably at very low risk of Covid-19.
“Wider vaccination will depend on how bad the situation gets.
"If it gets really bad, the Government could push the vaccine into the younger age brackets as well. But for now I think we need to focus on the first people on the list; those over 50 or those with medical problems."
How do we protect ourselves?
Professor Majeed said people can protect themselves against what is expected to be a bumper flu season by getting their annual vaccine.
The Covid-19 booster jab was available to people in their 50s and some people under the age of 50 with medical conditions, while the trio of Covid-19 vaccines were still on offer for those who had not yet been vaccinated against the virus.
“We are fortunate that we’ve got vaccines now for both [influenza and Covid-19],” he said.
The professor also advised that anyone unwell with symptoms of Covid-19 or the flu should avoid going into their place of work, so that they don't infect other people.
Should I go to work with Covid?
Employers "shouldn't be trying to push people to come back to work too early" if they were unwell, Professor Majeed said.
“If you are unwell and have Covid-19 or the flu, you should be allowed the time to recover and get well at home and avoid infecting other people."
Ventilation in common places like office spaces was also an important measure employers could work to put in place, the professor added.
Should we be wearing face masks again?
Professor Majeed said facemasks “have a role” as well, “particularly throughout crowded settings like public transport or shops”.
He said this would be “particularly effective” when protecting people against the flu as well as against Covid.
“There are some people who have weaker immune systems, people who are immunocompromised, those people often don’t respond well to vaccines and so have less protection from serious infection.
“So those people should take additional precautions this winter.”
What are the main symptoms of Covid?
As Covid-19 infection rates and hospitalisations increase, another health expert is warning that a new symptom has overtaken fever and loss of smell to become the new dominant indicator.
At the moment, Covid starts in two-thirds of people with a sore throat.
Professor Tim Spector, co-founder of the Covid ZOE app told The Independent, adding that many people were still using Government guidelines which were now "wrong".
"Fever and loss of smell are really rare now – so many people may not think they’ve got Covid.
"They’d say it’s a cold and not be tested," Professor Spector said.
