Who is going to win the campaign to replace Nicola Sturgeon as leader of the Scottish National party (SNP) and first minister of Scotland? There are various facts and qualities we can look to. For instance, the Scottish health secretary, Humza Yousaf – recently tipped as the frontrunner – has won more elections and held more ministerial posts than the finance secretary, Kate Forbes, and the former community safety minister, Ash Regan.
Evidence suggests that this kind of ministerial track record can both help and hinder prospective candidates in party leadership elections. But Yousaf also enters the contest being the only cabinet minister in the entire 24 years of Scottish devolution who is not white – the impact of which is harder to quantify.
