Week 0 and Week 1 of the 2022 college football season delivered fun upsets, some tremendous scoring madness (and the exact opposite) and just general chaos. College football is officially back and nearly in midseason form already.
However, we’re still about two months away from the first College Football Playoff rankings and about three away from the playoff committee making its selections for what’s still a four-team playoff, for now.
That means the teams with the best chances to make the playoff, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor and FPI, include many of the regulars we’ve seen before. In fact, after everyone’s season openers, the teams with the top-4 chances to make it are the same — but they’re in a slightly different order now.
So going into Week 2, here’s a look at the top-10 teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, along with their chances of advancing to the title game and winning it all, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, as of Tuesday. The Playoff Predictor utilizes an algorithm that factors in the same considerations as the selection committee, such as strength of record, number of losses and conference championships (or independent status), along with the FPI.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
- Playoff: 83.7 percent
- National championship game: 57.3 percent
- Win championship: 35.2 percent
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
- Playoff: 80.3 percent
- National championship game: 44.2 percent
- Win championship: 22.0 percent
3. Georgia Bulldogs
- Playoff: 76.8 percent
- National championship game: 47.3 percent
- Win championship: 25.6 percent
4. Clemson Tigers
- Playoff: 61.5 percent
- National championship game: 25.3 percent
- Win championship: 10.3 percent
Between the preseason and Week 2, Alabama leaped over Ohio State to claim the top spot after the Crimson Tide’s dominating 55-0 shut out against Utah State. Their percentages in all three categories got a boost this week, up from 79.7 percent chance to make the playoff, 52.2 percent to make the title game and 30.1 percent to win it all. Safe to say Alabama’s chances have been pretty solid all around, but now, it’s at the top.
Despite some early struggles, Ohio State came out on top in it’s hyped matchup against Notre Dame in Week 1, winning 21-10. But the Buckeyes’ playoff chances dipped a tad this week down from 83.1 percent, while their chances of making the national championship game followed suit from 49.8 percent and 27.3 percent, respectively. Still, they remain a playoff frontrunner for sure.
Georgia’s and Clemson’s playoff, title game and national championship chances largely remained about the same after both teams won in Week 1 – albeit in very different fashions. But the Tigers’ chances to make the playoffs actually saw a slight bump, up from 58.2 percent in the preseason, while the Bulldogs’ also increased by just 1.6 percent.
Here’s a look at the rest of the teams with the top-10 best College Football Playoff chances
The only team previously among the those with the top-10 best playoff chances no longer on this list is Utah, which lost to Florida in Week 1. Replacing Utah, although not in the same spot, is Baylor, which now has a 9 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff after beating Albany, 69-10, in Week 1. But that could change for the Bears next week, depending on how the BYU road game goes Saturday.
5. Michigan Wolverines
- Playoff: 24.8 percent
- National championship game: 7.6 percent
- Win championship: 2.2 percent
6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Playoff: 17.7 percent
- National championship game: 5.2 percent
- Win championship: 1.5 percent
7. Texas Longhorns
- Playoff: 10.9 percent
- National championship game: 3.1 percent
- Win championship: 0.8 percent
8. Miami Hurricanes
- Playoff: 9.4 percent
- National championship game: 2.4 percent
- Win championship: 0.6 percent
9. Baylor Bears
- Playoff: 9.0 percent
- National championship game: 2.3 percent
- Win championship: 0.6 percent
10. Oklahoma Sooners
- Playoff: 5.7 percent
- National championship game: 1.3 percent
- Win championship: 0.4 percent
