Our Simulations Says Navy Wins 14-7
Can Air Force Prove Our Simulation Wrong?
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WEEK 5: Air Force Falcons 1-3 (0-2 Mountain West) vs. Navy Midshipmen 4-0 (3-0 AAC)
WHEN: Saturday, October 5th, 10 a.m. MT
WHERE: Falcon Stadium (Colorado Springs, CO)
TV: CBS
Rich Waltz, play by play
Ross Tucker, analyst
Tiffany Blackmon, reporter
SERIES HISTORY: Air Force leads the overall series, 34-22
GAME NOTES (PDF): Air Force | Navy
To this point, the 2024 season has Air Force and Navy at opposite ends of the success spectrum. The Mids have come out the gates blazing, taking care of business against lesser competition, while stacking a huge win against pre-season AAC favorite, Memphis.
The Falcons on the other hand, have struggled in every conceivable fashion to start the FBS portion of their schedule. Now losers of three straight, Troy Calhoun’s squad will need an unprecedented jump in play if they want to stop the bleeding and avoid an early elimination from the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy race.
If you are interested in a little more detailed look at these two schools and what has transpired to this point in the season, check out our work from earlier in the week. Air Force vs. Navy: A Look at the Academies
OUR SIMULATION
To add a wrinkle to this week’s preview, we’ve used the new College Football 25 game, from EA Sports to help project the winner.
In our simulation, Navy took down Air Force in a low scoring affair, winning 14-7. The ultimate decider was a Colin Ramos fumble return for a touchdown to give the Mids the lead and secure victory.
Statistics were rather pedestrian, as both quarterbacks threw for just over 50 yards. Neither team eclipsed 200 yards of total offense. I don’t think the EA Sports game got the memo yet, Blake Horvath and the Navy offense are a force to be reckoned with.
EXPECTATIONS FOR SATURDAY
Last year, the Air Force defense imposed their will on Navy. Defensively, they weren’t relenting a foot, much less a yard. Don’t be fooled by the final score, that was really done in mop-up time to end the game. The Mids were never a real threat to score on an outstanding Falcon defense, much less a threat to win the game.
Offensively for Air Force, a big pass play from Zach Larrier to Dane Kinamon was the marque explosive offensive play from the game. Unfortunately for the Falcons, neither player has eligibility left, nor do any of last years starting offensive lineman.
2024 projects to be very different. Navy quarterback, Blake Horvath, is top ten nationally in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and yards per carry. Not to mention, the guy has been carving teams up with his arm as well. The Mids have their offense hitting on all cylinders, and it actually looks a lot like some of the dynamic Air Force offenses from seasons past.
This years Falcon offense doesn’t mark even the slightest resemblance to that of the past, nor this years Naval Academy unit. Maybe with time and more experience, things will start to click. But as it stands, this is one of the least productive offenses in the country, and stunningly, much of it has to do with their inability to run the ball.
It’s not as if Navy has features an iron-clad defense, they have surrendered points. But the Falcons have yet to figure things out, even against a very underwhelming Wyoming team. These are all ingredients to another year absence of the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy.
Games between these Military schools are always different. It is often said, and it’s just as often true. But the lack of any sign of life that suggest Air Force could threaten to score points at a clip that rivals Navy at this point would be nothing short of hope or optimism. There will be an “Ah ha” moment at some point for this Falcon offense. Maybe not to the extent we are used to seeing, but potential to improve is certainly there. I’m just not sure it’s this week, nor in the form of potential that can rival the team opposite them on Saturday.
Navy has the standout quarterback, rolls two deep with outstanding fullbacks in Alex Tecza and Daba Fofana, and they are flanked by an outstanding playmaker in Eli Heidenreich. There are just too many weapons to contend with.
Navy 24- Air Force 13
