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Fortune
Fortune
Sharon Goldman

AI mania or AI bubble? Nvidia’s earnings—and its China exposure—will decide how Wall Street answers that question

Jensen Huang, in a black leather jacket, stands on stage with a rocky mountain background projected behind him. (Credit: Chesnot—Getty Images)

Nvidia’s earnings aren’t just about Nvidia anymore. The $4 trillion chipmaker’s quarterly financials have become a litmus test for the AI boom—and, by extension, for the whole stock market. Constituting 8% of the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 index and with an unrivaled grip on the chips that power generative AI, Nvidia sees its results treated more like a macroeconomic indicator by Wall Street than as a report card on a single company. The earnings announcement has even become a cultural phenomenon complete with watch parties. 

Investors are bracing for the company’s latest quarterly results due after Wednesday’s market close, with trading in Nvidia options implying expectations that the stock will move 6%, up or down—equal to a $260 billion change in Nvidia’s market value.

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