2025 is now drawing to a close, and while the broader markets are set to deliver double-digit returns for the third consecutive year, we saw a rotation of sorts. After leading the stock market rally from the front over the previous two years, the “Magnificent 7” stocks took a back seat. And if not for the 65% rise in Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), the group’s weighted average returns would have trailed that of the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index ($NASX). While some Magnificent 7 names, particularly Nvidia (NVDA), delivered triple-digit returns in 2023 and 2024, this year none have found a way even into the top 25 gainers in the broad-based S&P 500 Index ($SPX).
Based on our perception of the technology, we may or may not term the 2025 price action as the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble bursting, but one thing was clear this year: investors are not buying into the ever-rising AI capex story and are increasingly getting worried about the toll they are taking on tech companies’ cash flows.
