Six days after the New South Wales election, ABC election analyst Antony Green is projecting the Liberal party will hold the hotly contested seat of Goulburn despite a statewide swing to Labor.
As postal votes come in, Mr Green said Ms Tuckerman is around 400 votes ahead on 50.5 per cent and will increase her lead on tomorrow's postal vote count.
Ms Tuckerman said she is very relieved after a long wait.
"From every angle it looks like we have retained the seat, so I am really pleased and honoured to continue in my role as the member for Goulburn and representing all people in the electorate," she said.
Ms Tuckerman held the seat for the Liberals at the 2019 after the resignation of Pru Goward.
She secured a margin of 3.5 per cent margin at the time, but a boundary redistribution saw the seat swing further to the south removing the communities of Boorowa and Rye Park and causing the notional margin to slip to 3.1 per cent.
The electorate covers all the communities along the Hume Highway from Berrima to Yass, with the largest centre being Goulburn, and stretches north to include the Southern Highland communities of Moss Vale and Robertson in Wingecarribee Shire.
The ABC's election guide notes "Liberal MP Wendy Tuckerman leads Labor's Michael Pilbrow by just over 400 votes using a preferences estimate to include the declaration votes counted on Thursday. On the first postal count of around 1,000 votes on election night, Tuckerman polled 59 per cent after preferences. With a figure of above 50 per cent expected to be repeated when around 3,000 postal votes are counted this Saturday, ABC election Analyst Antony Green has called Goulburn for Liberal Wendy Tuckerman."
Ms Tuckerman currently leads by 431 votes and has 40.6 per cent of the primary vote.
Labor's Michael Pilbrow won 36.3 per cent of the primary vote.
A tight campaign
Ms Tuckerman felt it was a tight campaign on the ground.
"It was the perfect storm in Goulburn; we lost Boorowa, we had the issue of 12 years of being in government and Michael managed to get number one on the ballot and I think that plays a big part," she said.
"I am just so proud we got over the line in really difficult circumstances; I feel like a winner."
Labor ran a vigorous campaign in the seat with Labor leader Chris Minns making several visits with promises for local roads and wombat shelters.
In February Ms Tuckerman and former Liberal MP for Wollondilly, Nathaniel Smith, caused controversy for the Premier after appearing to support the privatisation of Sydney Water in a video of a candidates forum in Bowral.
Ms Tuckerman later clarified her comments, saying it was a mistake.
"At that night there was a double- barrelled question in regards to privatisation and Sydney Water," she said.
"You would have noticed in the video that I actually hesitated; I should not have answered the question because there were two parts to the question."
The ABC has contacted Mr Pilbrow for comment.
Local issues play out
The campaign was also impacted by court ruling about noise that forced the closure of the Wakefield Park speedway.
The raceway has been closed indefinitely since the start of September 2022 after a Land and Environment Court ruling which imposed tighter noise limits on a venue.
Labor initially promised $1 million to reopen the park and tried to wedge Ms Tuckerman on the issue.
However in the final week of the campaign, Ms Tuckerman said a re-elected Perrottet government would provide $5 million to the new owners to help reopen the facilities.
Issues around plans for a $600 million waste incinerator also played out in the campaign.
Locals raised serious concerns about plans for the Woodlawn Advanced Energy Recovery Centre as part of the NSW government's waste strategy.
The Perrottet government has listed the development as state significant.
In the overall election result Labor holds 45 seats, the Coalition 33, independents and minor parties 12, while the three seats of Terrigal, Holsworthy and Ryde are still in doubt.
