The Indianapolis Colts’ quarterback carousel continues to spin. This time, it’s Matt Ryan who’s been ejected from the ride. Stepping up in his place is second-year veteran — and former sixth-round draft pick — Sam Ehlinger.
Ryan’s demotion is officially the result of a shoulder sprain, but to believe his job is secure when fully healthy would be folly. The former NFL MVP has been mostly unable to reclaim the glory of his mid-2010s run with the Atlanta Falcons. Ryan needed 44 passes to throw for 243 yards in Sunday’s loss to the Tennessee Titans and threw a pair of first half interceptions — including a pick-six that led to an early 10-0 deficit.
Ryan’s quarterback rating, interception rate and adjusted yards per attempt are all as bad as they’ve been since 2009. His arm strength is waning and he’s in real danger of sliding into late-stage Drew Brees/Ben Roethlisberger territory thanks to his inability to create plays downfield. His 5.7 air yards per throw is a career low by a significant margin and ranks dead last in the NFL.
Ehlinger’s promotion suggests 2023 will mark the seventh straight year where the previous season’s opening day starter doesn’t return for Week 1 the following September. Since 2019, the Colts have turned to these starting quarterbacks en route to a 30-25-1 regular season record and zero playoff wins:
- Jacoby Brissett
- Brian Hoyer
- Philip Rivers
- Carson Wentz
- Ryan
- and now Ehlinger
Bad! So who will be the next man up in a rotation of hopeful plug-and-play candidates general manager Chris Ballard hopes can mesh with a dynamic rushing attack and a village-razing defense and lead his team to glory? There are a few obvious candidates.
The best option: A 2023 rookie
Odds it happens: 2:1
The Colts’ refusal to bottom out has meant they haven’t had a proper homegrown quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck. Starting Ehlinger for a significant amount of time will likely take the team out of the playoff race and into the team’s best draft position since 2018. This year’s class of quarterback talent is light years better than 2022’s, which should given Ballard a few options should he make the logical choice and opt to rebuild around a young prospect.
The issue here is that the Colts are still too talented to truly sink all the way to the bottom of the league’s power rankings. Ehlinger has never thrown a regular season pass, but this team is still going to win games, especially against the soft schedule provided by the AFC South.
That means top tier prospects like CJ Stroud, Bryce Young, and maybe even Will Levis are likely out. Indianapolis may wind up building around a talented but less-hyped player like Hendon Hooker or Anthony Richardson. Either way, it would behoove the Colts to have a little extra backup on staff.
Jimmy Garoppolo
Odds it happens: 4:1
Signing a veteran and drafting a rookie quarterback aren’t mutually exclusive options. The Colts will very likely do both, providing an insurance policy for a young prospect who is learning the game at the pro level and may need some time to adjust before being thrown into the fire.
Garoppolo has been fine, winning some games and doing the kind of Jimmy Garoppolo things that convince a general manager to trade away three first round picks just to draft his replacement. He’ll be a free agent next spring and is the kind of caretaker quarterback who can produce a 12-5 record with the right running game and defense behind him.
And then promptly blank a wide open Michael Pittman downfield to instead throw an interception on a five-yard curl route during the playoffs.
Teddy Bridgewater
Odds it happens: 6:1
Bridgewater piloted the Broncos to a 7-7 record as a starter in 2021, which was decent enough back then but looks even better given Russell Wilson’s aggressive fiddling as his city burns behind him. He’s capable of being a game manager or turning up the volume in the passing game to keep his offense alive. Since 2021 he’s one of the game’s top 10 most efficient quarterbacks, even if he hasn’t exactly been prolific in that span.
Just as importantly, he’s fine being a backup or competing with a young gun for a starting role. In the latter case, Indy would have to hope it found a better prospect than Drew Lock.
Marcus Mariota
Odds it happens: 8:1
Mariota is under contract in Atlanta for 2023 and might be a valuable part of a roster that would be turning the reins over to either Desmond Ridder or another young quarterback. If the Falcons decide they no longer need him, he could be viable trade bait as a positive locker room presence capable of making plays with his arm or legs and taking a backseat as a QB2.
Baker Mayfield
Odds it happens: 15:1
Please, don’t.
Gardner Minshew
Odds it happens: 20:1
Minshew is a valuable backup and pending free agent who should have his share of suitors as his rookie contract expires and he heads into the Chase Daniel phase of his career. He has a career 41:12 touchdown-to-interception ratio and likely deserves a chance to vie for a starting role somewhere next spring. The Colts would be a tempting destination, even given their recent QB-killing reputation.
Daniel Jones
Odds it happens: 25:1
Could Chris Ballard make a move for the lost, least popular, least talented Manning brother if the Giants decide to move on from him? Jones is the quarterback of a 6-1 team, and while his passing hasn’t been epic his composure, ability to avoid backbreaking turnovers and scrambling chops have played a significant role behind the NFL’s most surprising team.
It feels unlikely the Colts would have the chance. If New York keeps winning like this it would play its way out of a draft slot where it could find Jones’ replacement. Instead, the Giants may opt to either franchise tag or sign Jones to a moderately-priced, low-risk contract extension and see if he could run it back. Ballard could potentially work out a trade from there, but “traded for Daniel Jones” feels like the kind of bullet point that only gets engraved on an executive’s tombstone.
Tom Brady
Odds it happens: 200:1
The funniest possible outcome is one where Brady voids his contract with the Buccaneers and leaves Florida for the celebrity life in central Indiana. “Indianapolis Colt Tom Brady,” more than a decade removed from Peyton Manning’s last season in the Circle City, would be a wild curiosity. It’s not impossible — though the Colts’ sudden lack of blocking would be a turnoff for a player dealing with entirely too much static in the pocket with the Bucs — but it absolutely isn’t likely.
