Hawthorn are well placed to make the leap into a first grand final since 2015 after building steadily across three finals campaigns and putting on a dominant qualifying final display. A victory over Brisbane at this stage could even be the first step in a changing of the guard. But the Lions surely won’t give up their crown without a fight, as they aim to become just the third VFL/AFL side in nearly seven decades – after an earlier version from each of these clubs – to claim a premiership three-peat.
The Hawks could hardly have been more impressive as they ambushed the Dockers on their home turf to earn a week’s break and a home preliminary final at the MCG. The resounding triumph for Sam Mitchell’s side against the minor premiers came as a surprise to many but the signs were there in a hot streak that now includes one defeat in their past eight matches. The lingering concern will be that the loss in that stretch was a thumping from the Lions, who the Hawks have failed to beat in their past three clashes.
The Lions are back on familiar ground in a fifth consecutive preliminary final – and at the same venue and in the same Saturday twilight slot as in the past two years when they not only secured a spot in a pair of grand finals but won back-to-back flags. Chris Fagan’s side is treading much the same path as last year when they were hammered in a qualifying final before bouncing back a week later. The Lions have done well to regenerate on the run but will have to knock down a Hawks side on the rise to earn a shot at joining the greatest teams of the modern era.
Where the game will be won – and lost
Hawthorn have been the fourth-best side this season at limiting opposition scores but put on a defensive masterclass in their qualifying final win against the Dockers. With their pressure ramped up and a well-honed structure across the field they stifled the minor premiers’ ball movement and conceded only five goals from 57 inside-50s. The Hawks lost two of 20 matches when they held the opposition under 100 points this year. But their four other defeats came from the four times when they conceded 120 points or more.
The Hawks’ defence might be integral to their success but they also have the firepower to hurt the Lions in attack. Evergreen Jack Gunston (61 goals) remains the focal point while a spread of pacey half-forwards link the play and offer their own threat near goal. Nick Watson (57) is the standout as arguably the best small forward in the game, but Dylan Moore, Jack Ginnivan and Connor Macdonald can hit the scoreboard and will be just as critical in pressuring the Lions’ at-times shaky defence.
Brisbane have their own fleet of half-forwards who showed they still set the standard when they came out with a point to prove and blew away Adelaide. Veteran goalsneak Charlie Cameron (55 goals) leads the way while Kai Lohmann (48) has taken his game to another level. Zac Bailey and Cam Rayner are two of the most powerful front-half players in the competition and can also pinch-hit in the midfield. The spread of goal threats, even before considering young key forward Logan Morris (67), will test the Hawks’ defence and the ability for the likes of James Sicily to rebound off intercepts.
The Lions can turn to greater depth of top-end talent in the midfield. Will Ashcroft has put together a season befitting of a two-time Norm Smith medallist, the injury-plagued Hugh McCluggage will be better for an extra game in the legs, and Josh Dunkley adds the balance with his defensive nous. Lachie Neale’s finals form is a mounting concern at the same time as the dual Brownlow medallist is reportedly heading for the exit. But the Lions’ onball brigade have proved over a long stretch they can rise to the occasion with contest and clearance dominance in a knockout final.
Game-changers
Will Day: The Hawks’ smooth-moving midfielder was made to wait for his finals debut after a long battle with injuries forced him out late in the 2024 and 2025 campaigns. The 25-year-old has enjoyed an uninterrupted run since putting foot and shoulder issues behind him and quickly showed he is made for the big stage with a sublime performance in the Hawks’ qualifying final. Day helped his side make the most of their early momentum before finishing with 24 disposals and eight clearances and let his emotions spill over on the final siren. Blessed with poise and polish, Day adds balance to the Hawks’ onball brigade and will be critical to his team’s chances against the Lions, especially with master-minder Dunkley likely to spend time by his side.
Charlie Cameron: The livewire was one of several experienced Lions to have the blowtorch turned on them after a lacklustre qualifying final performance. The 32-year-old went goalless for just the second time this year in the defeat to the Swans but it was no surprise to see him spark the Lions in their emphatic response. Cameron booted a bag of five for the first time in more than two years in the semi-final to send another reminder that he is a big-game performer. The small forward has the second-most finals goals since the start of 2000 with 58, only behind Lance Franklin in that period – as much a reflection of his consistent impact as his durability. Cameron will play his 30th final this week for the 10th-most in VFL/AFL history and now has a fifth career grand final in his sights.
Early prediction
Brisbane have been at the top of the mountain for so long they can be forgiven for the occasional insipid performance and have shown in recent years that when they switch on for a do-or-die clash they are almost unstoppable. Hawthorn are undeniably a team on the rise but for now will find the reigning premiers’ spread of talent too much to contain.
