When the 10-7 Rams face off against the 12-5 Detroit Lions tonight at Ford Field, they will do so with a bit of a disadvantage according to the advanced stats. The Lions possess several advantages across multiple statistical categories on both sides of the ball including significant advantages in explosive play rate and EPA/rush allowed.
EPA, or expected points added, shows that the Lions have an offense that puts together a consistent scoring effort as they rank in the top eight in five offensive metrics. However, the Rams hold advantages in three different defensive categories.
The advantage for the Rams lies in offensive player performances. Matthew Stafford is the 11th-ranked QB out of the 36 eligible passers compared to Jared Goff’s ranking of 13. Kyren Williams is ranked fifth compared to Jahmyr Gibbs ranking 11th and despite a slight advantage at the receiver position as Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks sixth compared to Puka Nacua’s ranking of seventh, Nacua did put up more yards than St. Brown despite not having Stafford for two games.
Based on the numbers, if the Rams are able to prevent explosive plays and are able to establish a consistent passing attack, they will be in prime position to advance to the divisional round.
NFL Super Wild Card Weekend – Advanced Stats Preview
Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions pic.twitter.com/kBaFW2SUCv
— SumerSports (@SumerSports) January 12, 2024
