A rapidly strengthening El Niño is expected to become a very strong event before the end of 2026, increasing the risk of drought, flooding and extreme heat across large parts of the world and putting additional pressure on agriculture, food supplies and energy systems.
The World Meteorological Organization said Thursday that forecasts from its global climate centers show a nearly 100% probability that El Niño will persist through February 2027, the highest level of certainty it has ever expressed in an El Niño update. Exceptionally warm waters in the tropical Pacific are expected to fuel further strengthening before the event peaks toward the end of this year.
