A ‘super El Niño?’ Why it’s too early to forecast one with certainty, but not too soon to prepare

El Niño can mean a rainy U.S. Southwest, warmer winters in the North and less Atlantic hurricane activity – but not always. Bill Tompkins/Getty Images

Talk of a “super El Niño” developing in 2026 is gaining momentum, with concerns rising that this climate pattern could bring extreme rainfall, heat, drought and destructive flooding around the world.

The signals appear to be in place: The tropical Pacific is warming along the equator, and computer models point toward extreme conditions by the end of the year.