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The Conversation
The Conversation
Ligin Joseph, PhD Candidate, Oceanography, University of Southampton

A ‘super El Niño’ could make India’s monsoon drier yet more dangerous

India is currently in the middle of its summer monsoon, but this year’s rainfall presents an interesting paradox. Much of the country has received less rain than usual so far, yet has still been hit by severe floods and landslides. In the southern state of Kerala, for example, devastating floods occurred despite the overall monsoon rainfall remaining well below average.

A weaker monsoon does not necessarily mean an absence of extreme rainfall. Rainfall can be highly uneven, with long dry spells broken by intense cloudbursts that cause flooding and landslides. This year’s experience in Kerala illustrates the apparent contradiction: a season that is dry overall can still produce devastating rainfall.

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