When Vladimir Putin takes to the stage on Tuesday to commemorate the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany, his speech on Red Square will have been preceded by a turbulent week in which drones attacked the Kremlin and one of his top war leaders threatened mutiny.
The dramatic footage early last Wednesday of two drones flying over the walls of the Kremlin, its historical seat of power, exposed vulnerabilities in the heart of the Russian capital, putting Moscow on edge.
The authorities have banned the use of drones and started jamming GPS signals, leading to taxis appearing to be in the Moscow River on ride-hailing apps. Binoculars have hastily been handed out to police to spot incoming drones.
“There is a nervousness that I have never seen before,” said one official at the Moscow mayor’s office. “But Victory Day has to go ahead, there is no other option,” he added, speaking on conditions of anonymity.
Tellingly, on Friday, Putin took the unusual step to discuss the preparations for the 9 May Victory Day parade in a meeting with his security council, composed of Russia’s top state officials and heads of defence and security agencies.
Even before the drone attack on the Kremlin, there were signs of unease among the Russian leadership over the celebrations amid fears of Ukrainian strikes.
At least six Russian regions had scrapped the celebrations, with one region 400 miles from the border being the latest to cancel.
Victory Day, when Russians celebrate the 1945 endpoint of what they call the “great patriotic war”, has gradually emerged as the centrepiece of Vladimir Putin’s vision of Russian identity over his 23 years in charge.
The carefully orchestrated victory parades that take place across the country traditionally present the Kremlin with an opportunity to flaunt modern Russian military might.
“For Putin, it is by far the most important event of the year,” said Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, based in Moscow.
“Putin derives his whole legitimacy from the parade, framing himself as the direct successor of the army that defeated Nazi Germany.”
Given this importance to the Kremlin, the parade in Moscow will go ahead, Kolesnikov said.
“This is also Putin’s chance to show to the nation that he is still strong and in control of the so-called special military operation in Ukraine,” Kolesnikov added.
But on the eve of 9 May, Russia looks far from triumphing in a war it initially expected to last a few weeks.
Moscow’s winter and spring offensive across a 160-mile arc in eastern Ukraine, which started in February, has brought the country minimal gains at staggering costs.
Western officials have estimated that more than 20,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in fighting in Ukraine since December alone.
Ukraine, backed by modern western weapons, will soon launch its own much anticipated counteroffensive to recapture lost territory.
To add to the worries in the Kremlin, mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin on Thursday recorded a remarkable expletive-ridden video personally blaming the top defence chiefs for losses suffered by fighters in Ukraine. In a separate message, Prigozhin also said his Wagner troops will leave the besieged eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut on 10 May, the day after the Victory Parade takes place.
In the cities where the parades will go ahead, experts say a close read of the celebrations is likely to show the strain and damage the war has afflicted on the military.
“Most of the military parades will only have conscripts marching because all the contract soldiers are in Ukraine,” said Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at the Rand Corporation.
“With so much of the ground forces engaged in Ukraine, some regions will be forced to get creative and have military instructors and other personnel play a more prominent role to give the appearance of normality,” Massicot added.
One of 9 May’s most recognisable events, the Immortal Regiment march – a solemn procession of people with portraits of their second world war veteran relatives – has also been scrapped this year.
One explanation for such a move, Massicot said, is that the authorities worry the procession could end up highlighting the real number of Russian losses in Ukraine, with relatives bringing the portraits of those killed in the current war.
Kolesnikov said that on Tuesday, Putin is likely to draw historical parallels between the two wars, falsely framing Ukraine as a successor to Nazi Germany.
During last year’s Victory Parade speech, he claimed the Russian army was fighting in Ukraine “so that there is no place in the world for butchers, murderers and Nazis”.
“Victory will be ours, like in 1945,” Putin proclaimed at the time.
A museum in central Moscow dedicated to the second world war has since opened an immersive exhibition that portrays the war in Ukraine alongside the victory over Nazi Germany.
But despite the Kremlin’s efforts to frame the war as an existential battle for the country’s survival, there are signs that some in the country remain unwilling to sacrifice their own wellbeing for what the Kremlin claims to be the greater cause.
According to the latest survey by the independent Levada pollster,most Russians are unwilling to contribute 1,000-2,000 rubles per month (£10-£20) to help the needs of soldiers in Ukraine.
The same poll showed that “anxiety” and “fear” were emotions most often listed when respondents were asked about the new electronic conscription law that makes it harder for young men to dodge the draft by automatically banning registered conscripts from leaving the country.
“The nation has adapted to the realities of the war,” Kolesnikov said.
“But that does not mean people are willing to sacrifice everything. If there is an opportunity to stay on the sidelines, they will happily take it.”
