As Election Day approaches, Latino congressional candidates face both challenges and opportunities in key races across the United States. While several incumbents are working to defend their seats, a new wave of Latino candidates may expand the community's representation in Congress. Latinos currently make up nearly 20% of the U.S. population but only 2% of elected officials, a disparity that limits their overall political power.
A recent report by the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute highlighted that Latino representation in local, state, and federal government has doubled since 2000, but still remains low. In Congress, 49 House members and five senators identify as Latino, with most House members (35) aligned with the Democratic Party.
Notable Senate races include those of U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego, an Arizona Democrat, and Bernie Moreno, a Republican from Ohio. Gallego is leading in polls against his GOP opponent, Kari Lake, while Moreno is closely trailing Democrat Sherrod Brown. If elected, both would raise the Latino count in the Senate from five to seven. In Texas, Cuban American Senator Ted Cruz is also in a challenging race, facing off against Democrat Colin Allred.
At the House level, several Latino incumbents are in competitive re-election bids. These include U.S. Reps. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), Mike Garcia (R-Calif.), Yadira Caraveo (D-Colo.), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.), Gabriel Vasquez (D-N.M.), Anthony D'Esposito (R-N.Y.), and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.), according to the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO). On the other hand, five Latino non-incumbent candidates, largely from California, are seen as having strong chances to win seats in the House.
According to NALEO, 43 of the 48 Latinos currently in the House are running for reelection, with 36 having "excellent" prospects, as reported by Axios. While it remains unlikely, analysis suggests that the number of Latino representatives could increase to 50 following the elections. This potential growth reflects the increasing influence of Latino voters in American politics.
"2022 presented itself with new opportunities for Latinos to run in new districts across the country," said Arturo Vargas, CEO of the NALEO Educational Fund, who highlighted redistricting, which occurs every ten years after a census, as a contributing factor. He explained that while more Latinos are campaigning in districts without a Hispanic majority, significant barriers still remain.
"We would love to see more Latino candidates be fielded by both political parties, and not just in Latino majority jurisdictions or districts," Vargas said. "That in itself sort of imposes a ceiling on the number of Latinos that can be elected."
While analysts anticipate potential gains for Latino representation, Vargas emphasized the need for political parties to prioritize the long-term development of Latino candidates. "You have to have Latino candidates ready to run when opportunities present themselves," he added.
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