A-level results are expected to be lower than in the two years exams were not sat, but higher than when tests were last used to decide grades before the Covid-19 pandemic.
Thousands of 17 and 18-year-olds will find out their A-level results on Thursday August 18. Many will be hoping for the grades they need to get onto the university course of their choice.
This year's cohort is the first to sit exam assessments for A-levels since 2019, as they were shelved for two years due to the coronavirus pandemic. Last year, teacher's graded their pupils based on assessments like mock tests and work students did during the year.
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There was still some help available to students this year. Advanced information on which topics exams would cover was made available to students, other than for English literature, history, geography, and ancient history. There were also adjustments for coursework in recognition that carrying out activities like fieldwork for geography courses could have been hit by Covid disruption.
Grade boundaries will be more generous than when exams were last sat, in 2019, but results are not likely to be as high as in 2020 and 2021, when exams were cancelled.
Ofqual says : "As we return to summer exams, in 2022 exam boards will set grade boundaries that are more generous than pre-pandemic.
"This will provide a safety net for students, to reflect the disruption this cohort have experienced already in their course of study and recognising the fact that, because of the pandemic, most A level students won’t have taken public exams before."
Students can also expect more variation in results compared to the previous two years.
Ofqual states: "Results will be part-way between those of summer 2019 and summer 2021. It is unlikely that results will be precisely at a midpoint between summer 2019 and 2021 – overall or for individual subjects. This will also likely vary at different grades, because it will depend on how students have performed.
"Results in summer 2021 were higher than in 2019 to a greater extent in some subjects than others. Our approach this summer allows us to begin to re-establish pre-pandemic relationships between subjects."
Unlike in 2020 and 2021, students will be graded purely on assessed work. That includes exams and course work.
Ofqual adds: "Students’ grades will be determined only by the number of marks they achieve on the assessments. It doesn’t matter where in the country students are located, or the type of school or college they attend; the same grade boundaries will apply to everyone taking the qualification."
Caution from universities in making offers ahead of A-level results day suggests they are confident students will make the grade, Ucas has said in the run-up to what could be one of the most competitive years for courses.
Clare Marchant, chief executive officer at Ucas, said the admissions service is predicting a “record, or near record, number of 18-year-olds getting their first choice this year”.
Her comments came after a report by Professor Alan Smithers, director of the Centre for Education and Employment Research at the University of Buckingham, who said there could be 80,000 fewer top grades – A* or A – awarded than in 2021, meaning some 40,000 students could miss out on their course or university of choice.
Ms Marchant said birth rates had created a growing population of 18-year-olds in the UK, with an increased proportion of people this age applying for places this year – 44.1% – up on the previous two years.
She said: “While some universities have been more cautious with offer-making to prevent over-subscription, particularly in courses like medicine and dentistry where places are capped, this suggests they are confident their candidates will meet their offers.
“As in any year, some students will be disappointed when they receive their grades.”
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