For more than three decades the prospect of Tory MPs rebelling over Europe struck fear into the hearts of Conservative prime ministers. And for good reason. The premierships of Margaret Thatcher, John Major, David Cameron and Theresa May were all scarred and ultimately destroyed by arguments over the UK’s involvement in the European project.
Last Wednesday, however, something changed. A key vote on the Northern Ireland protocol passed through the House of Commons with ease, as the threat of a large Tory backbench uprising melted away. The prime minister, Rishi Sunak, was told by the Tory whips even before the vote took place that there was nothing serious to worry about. The debate preceding it had lacked the Tory rancour to which the House of Commons had long become accustomed when discussing European issues.