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The Independent UK
The Independent UK
World
Wyatte Grantham-Philips

A huge bet payout after Maduro’s capture turns spotlight on murky world of prediction markets

Nicolás Maduro Donald Trump Donald Trump Jr. Polymarket CFTC United States Kalshi Basketball Venezuela
Polymarket prediction market website is displayed on a computer screen Friday, Jan. 9, 2026, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Wally Santana) - (Copyright 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved)

Prediction markets, allowing wagers on anything from sports to political shifts, are under renewed scrutiny following a substantial payout linked to Nicolás Maduro's removal, highlighting the murky nature of speculative, 24/7 transactions.

An anonymous trader recently pocketed over $400,000 after successfully betting on the Venezuelan leader's imminent departure.

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