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Fortune
Fortune
Lance Lambert

A 1981-level mortgage rate shock has the housing market in a correction—these 7 leading research firms predict what's next for rates

The Federal Reserve eventually quelled the inflationary run that took off in the 1970s, but only after the central bank's aggressive rate hikes saw mortgage rates top 18% in 1981 and the housing market slip into a sharp recession. At the time, homebuilders mailed lumber to the Fed as a means of protest while some renters assumed they'd never be able to afford a home.

Fast-forward to today, and the Fed's ongoing inflation-fight has once again spurred a mortgage rate shock. This spike in mortgage rates, which are up from 3.22% to 6.48% over the past 12 months, has pushed the U.S. housing market into a full-blown housing correction.

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