The Kansas City Chiefs are back on the road this week, facing the San Francisco 49ers in their first regular-season rematch since Super Bowl LIV.
Buy Chiefs TicketsThese two teams might be from different conferences, but they’ve both been among the best teams in the NFL for several seasons now. The Chiefs are coming off of a disappointing loss to the Bills at home in Week 6. The 49ers also suffered a letdown against the Falcons a week ago. Which team will manage to get back on schedule with a win in Week 7?
Here are five of the things we’ll be looking for that could help determine the outcome of the game:
How does the secondary do this week?
The Chiefs are getting Bryan Cook back this week, which will help. However, they won’t have first-rounder Trent McDuffie, so Joshua Williams is in line for significant snaps again. In Week 6 against the Bills, the cornerbacks struggled to hold up 1-on-1 in man coverage looks. Early in the game, they played a lot of basic zone coverage looks because they simply didn’t have the personnel to do much else.
Now, this week they’re going up against a QB in Jimmy Garoppolo who is a lot less threatening compared to Bills QB Josh Allen. Their receiver group, however, is comparable. Between Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Danny Gray and Jauan Jennings, the cornerbacks could again struggle to hold up in man coverage, especially if the defensive line isn’t getting pressure with a four-man rush.
Can the Chiefs get the ground game going?
Even against a tough defensive front, the Chiefs need to find a way to get the running game going against the 49ers in Week 7. They neglected the ground game against the Bills in Week 6. Running backs combined to carry the ball 13 times for just 43 combined yards with an average of just 3.3 yards per carry. That’s not enough attempts and it’s certainly not enough rushing yards per attempt.
This is a multi-prong issue for Kansas City. The run-blocking needs to be better. The running backs need to perform better when given opportunities. The play-calling must be more innovative when it comes to the ground game. There also needs to be a bit more willingness to ride the hot hand — last week it looked like Isiah Pacheco was going to be that guy, but they went away from him. Maybe this week it’ll be Jerick McKinnon, who should be fired up to play against his former team.
Can receivers take advantage of matchups?
The biggest mismatch the Chiefs can exploit this week will likely be in the secondary. Charvarius Ward, Deommodore Lenoir and Samuel Womack are likely the starting trio that the 49ers roll out on Sunday. Ward has been limited in practice all week with a groin injury, Lenoir is a third-stringer and Womack is a rookie. There are going to be opportunities in the passing game that Patrick Mahomes and the receivers will need to take advantage of.
Part of taking advantage here will also fall on the offensive line. They surrendered 25 total pressures, including three sacks to the Bills in Week 6. The 49ers have 23 total sacks as a team this season, good for second most in the NFL. They’re adept at getting after the quarterback, which means Patrick Mahomes might not have the time for deeper routes to develop against man coverage. Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie will have to do their part to make that happen.
Forcing errors off of Jimmy Garoppolo
The Chiefs’ defense hasn’t been good at taking away the football this season. They’re tied for the second-fewest takeaways in the NFL this season with four. Technically, they’re credited with five, but one of their forced fumbles came on special teams. The most glaring stat is that they only have one interception — Jaylen Watson’s 99-yard touchdown return in Week 2.
Juan Thornhill told reporters this week that it hasn’t really been a matter of dropped interceptions, but rather that the team hasn’t had many opportunities to create turnovers. That could all change in Week 7 against 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Last week against the Atlanta Falcons, Garoppolo threw two interceptions. The last time Garoppolo faced Kansas City was in Super Bowl LIV. He threw two interceptions in that game as well. If the Chiefs can manage to get some pressure on Garoppolo, they could have a chance at reversing their fortunes in the turnover department.
Pre-snap motion kings
Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan are two of the most inventive offensive minds in the NFL. While their offensive schemes are quite different, the one thing that they both feature is a healthy dose of pre-snap motion. ESPN’s Field Yates dug up this pretty unique feature of the matchup.
Since the start of the 2021 season, the Chiefs and 49ers have each scored 47 offensive TDs on plays featuring pre-snap motion. That's the most in the NFL.
You'll see plenty of motion this Sunday when these two square off. pic.twitter.com/09nYP5hC4g
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) October 21, 2022
Who will be more successful with their pre-snap motion in Week 7? I expect that the Chiefs will utilize it often in an effort to try and slow down the pass rush. It’s also a good tool for Patrick Mahomes to use in order to sniff out defensive tendencies on a down-to-down basis.
