The Chicago Bears did the only thing they needed to do in a season where the playoffs were a deep, distant dream. They lost enough games to secure the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
That leaves them with the opportunity to dictate how this spring’s draft unfolds. The Bears could hold onto the selection and add a star to its young corps, but the most valuable prospect in this year’s draft is Alabama quarterback Bryce Young — a very good player who plays the same position as Justin Fields.
Fields has languished for two seasons with an offense that’s surrounded him with old subway turnstiles on his offensive line and a bunch of water-damaged mannequins at wide receiver. Despite this, he still managed to generate moments of absolute electricity behind center.
This suggests the smart move would be for Chicago to pass up on the opportunity to draft Young and instead auction off the top pick to find the talent that can help Fields realize his star potential The Bears can slide back in the first round, glean multiple high value draft picks in exchange for No. 1 overall and bolster their roster with offensive tackles, wide receivers and defensive help — all of which will be plentiful in the mid-first, second and third rounds.
There’s no guarantee that’s what Chicago will do, but it’s clear the top pick is a broachable subject for the Bears front office this offseason. Who’d be interested? Turns out, a lot of teams:
1
Houston Texans
The Texans’ tank job failed to land on the top overall pick for the second consecutive season. Houston’s Week 18 win over the Colts pushed Chicago to the first selection and ensured general manager Nick Caserio will have to spend more than he’d hoped to be able to call his own shot at this year’s draft.
Caserio is faced with a conundrum. His team badly needs young talent across the board. But his 2022 quarterbacks were Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel, which means finding a franchise passer is a clear top priority. Signing a veteran free agent likely wouldn’t move the needle. Drafting a young star who can grow alongside the other promising developing pieces of the roster, scant as they may be, would.
The Texans have the most value to offer Chicago with the second and 33rd overall picks. Any future selections shipped to the Bears would come with the bonus of knowing Houston will probably struggle again in 2023, placing them near the top of whatever round they may land in (not the first, but potentially the second or third).
What could that trade look like? We’ll use a modified version of Bill Belichick’s trade value chart to find a deal that could work for both teams — in this case, one parsed by Pats Pulpit’s Rich Hill — to figure out what the Bears may be looking for.
The offer: Texans trade their 2023 first round pick (second overall), 2023 second round pick (33rd overall) and 2024 second round pick for the Bears’ first overall pick and fourth round pick (likely 103rd overall after compensatory selections are awarded).
2
Indianapolis Colts
The surprise firing of Frank Reich and absurd hiring of interim head coach Jeff Saturday accomplished two things: It proved prior experience *is* important for NFL coaches and pushed the Colts from the middle of the draft order all the way to the fourth overall pick.
Indianapolis could sit on that pick, hope no one trades into the top three, then choose between CJ Stroud and Will Levis as the Andrew Luck replacement it’s been searching for since 2019. Or it could package some picks together, move up to No. 1 and control its own fate rather than let the rest of the league decide it for them.
In the offseason after team owner Jim Irsay fired a coach who’d gone 40-33-1 despite a litany of underwhelming veteran quarterbacks and installed a former player who’d never coached above the high school level, the latter choice looms large. The Colts wasted a window of contention because they didn’t have a quarterback capable of capitalizing on a devastating run game and a top 10 defense. It may be too late to pry that back open after 2022’s struggles, but the lesson is clear — this team needs a franchise passer built from the ground up, not a retread someone else gave up on.
The offer: Colts trade their 2023 first round pick (fourth overall), 2023 second round pick (35th overall), 2024 second round pick and 2024 third round pick for the Bears’ first overall pick. That’s an underpay by the Belichick model, equal value in Jimmy Johnson’s oft-cited model and an overpay by Over The Cap’s Fitzgerald-Spielberger NFL Draft Trade Value Chart.
3
Las Vegas Raiders
Derek Carr was benched late in the 2022 season to keep him from getting injured and having his $35 million-ish 2023 salary guaranteed. The Raiders could keep him around as a Jimmy Garoppolo-type presence to mentor a new quarterback. Or they could trade or release him and shave between $29 and $33 million from their salary cap, depending on the timing.
While Carr’s future remains uncertain, it does appear Las Vegas is in the market for a new franchise quarterback. Jarrett Stidham, despite a sound performance in Week 17, is not that guy. Owner Mark Davis is no stranger to bold moves. Given the mostly awful returns of the team’s recent drafts, he could be receptive to a deal that bankrupts his stockpile of picks.
The Raiders’ slide to 6-11 puts them at the seventh overall selection, a silver lining on a regrettable debut season for Josh McDaniels. That’s a long way to go with a move up, leaving Vegas to ponder the idea of two first round picks, plus more, for a quarterback who hasn’t played a down in the NFL. It’s a risk that resonates even more for a team that earned 33 percent of its wins against Russell Wilson’s Denver Broncos this season.
Then again, only one of the team’s last six first round picks (all made in 2019 or later) was a starter in 2022 (Josh Jacobs). Only two were still with the team at the season’s end (Clelin Ferrell). It’s possible Vegas prefers a strategy that puts all its eggs in one basket.
The offer: Raiders trade their 2023 first round pick (seventh overall), 2023 second round pick (35th overall), 2024 first round pick and 2024 third round pick for the Bears’ first overall pick.
4
Carolina Panthers
Matt Rhule never had a chance in Carolina; his best quarterback in two-plus seasons was Teddy Bridgewater. Interim head coach Steve Wilks found a way to get to .500 (6-6) with Sam Darnold behind center, but also relied heavily on a run-first attack that minimized the stress on on his passing game.
Giving Wilks or whomever assumes the full time mantle in Charlotte a shot at success revolves around finding a viable quarterback. The Panthers could opt for a veteran talent to mesh with DJ Moore, a solid running game and a defense capable of great heights. But that failed each of the last three seasons and could compel the franchise to turn to the draft rather than a retread.
That’s going to be tough to do with the ninth overall pick. There’s only a minor chance a second tier quarterback prospect will slide that far. Carolina could take matters into their own hands with a trade up the board. A move to, say, No. 5 is more realistic, but that doesn’t mean the Panthers wouldn’t kick the tires on a deal that gives them full autonomy over their draft selection.
The offer: Panthers trade their 2023 first round pick (ninth overall), 2023 second round pick (39th overall), 2023 fourth round pick (currently 121st overall, likely around 130th after compensatory selections are awarded), 2024 first round pick and 2024 second round pick for the Bears’ first overall pick and fifth round pick (whichever pick was included in the Roquan Smith deal, which could be around 150th overall or 160th, depending on the Ravens’ draft position).
5
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons turned the reins over to Desmond Ridder late in the 2022 season and the rookie was … fine. The third-round pick avoided risk through the air but wasn’t especially explosive thanks to late reads and a depleted receiving corps. Atlanta could opt to give him another shot at the top job. Or it could trade up for a higher profile young passer this spring.
The team hasn’t been to the playoffs since 2017. Matt Ryan had a quietly great season in 2018, but his dropoff in the years since and the switch to Ridder/Marcus Mariota played a large role in that drought. Atlanta isn’t one player away from contention (even in the disheveled NFC South). It makes sense to add a young quarterback to a young core that includes first and second-year players like Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Tyler Allgeier.
The Falcons settled for Ridder in 2022 against the backdrop of an underwhelming quarterback class. Would they do the same in 2023? Or would five years of losing records be enough to spur a move up the draft board?
Like the Panthers, a leap into the top five may be more reasonable. Still, there’s no reason not to shoot for the stars if Atlanta falls in love with a budding prospect. Unfortunately, tiebreakers move their second round pick all the way down to 44th this spring, which means they may have to sweeten the pot in 2024 more than others.
The offer: Falcons trade their 2023 first round pick (eighth overall), 2023 second round pick (44th overall), 2024 first round pick, 2024 second round pick and 2024 fourth round pick for the Bears’ first overall pick.
6
Three more teams who might be tempted to kick the tires on a deal
Seattle Seahawks: Geno Smith was one of 2022’s best stories as he acclimated to a starting role for the first time in nearly a decade and led the Seahawks to the playoffs. But Smith also struggled toward the end of the season; his EPA per play dropped from seventh-best in the NFL to 19th over the final nine weeks of the year. He’s a pending free agent, and while Pete Carroll may want to keep him he could also be looking at younger options than the 32-year-old veteran.
Detroit Lions: The Lions got a resurgent year from Jared Goff. He’s under contract for 2023, so picking up a player like Bryce Young would be a luxury. But counting on another efficient season from a quarterback who once looked broken in Sean McVay’s system is a gamble. Detroit is unlikely to trade up, but has to consider its options despite inspiring play from its veteran quarterback and a stunning rally to cap the 2022 season.
New York Jets: The leap from the 13th overall pick to No. 1 may be prohibitively expensive — it cost New York a haul of second-rounders just to move from No. 6 to No. 3 back in 2018. That deal landed Sam Darnold, which could provide further persuasion not to mortgage the team’s draft future for a single player. But the Jets badly need a franchise quarterback after Zach Wilson’s stunning inability to grow into anything resembling reliable.
With a dynamic defense and lineup of young, explosive skill players in place, the stars are aligned for New York to make a big move at quarterback. It probably won’t be the first one selected in the 2023 NFL Draft, but it’s gotta be someone.
