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Robert Muggah, Richard von Weizsäcker Fellow na Bosch Academy e Co-fundador, Instituto Igarapé; Princeton University

5 scenarios for a post-Maduro Venezuela — and what they could signal to the wider region

Armed supporters of Nicolás Maduro gather near the Miraflores presidential palace in Caracas on Jan. 3, 2026. Federico Parra/ AFP via Getty Images

The predawn U.S. military operation that spirited Nicolás Maduro and his wife out of Venezuela and into U.S. custody marks a watershed in hemispheric politics. In an operation that lasted just over two hours, American forces removed a foreign president. It followed months of saber-rattling and a steady buildup of America’s regional forces.

Whether under the banner of counter-narcotics or regime change, the message is unmistakable: The U.S. is prepared to act unilaterally, forcefully and, potentially, illegally. And this will have broad ramifications across Latin America, not least for Venezuela itself.

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