The 49ers should beat the Browns. They should probably beat the Browns by a lot. San Francisco has a better roster, a better coaching staff, and they’re healthier. Cleveland is also without starting quarterback Deshaun Watson. All signs point to a 49ers victory.
Alas, it’s the NFL and weird things happen. A Browns upset is on the table even if the odds are stacked in the 49ers’ favor.
San Francisco should go into Cleveland and leave with a win, but here are a few reasons for concern heading into Sunday:
Browns pass rush
There’s been chatter all year about the Browns’ defense and it’s easy to dismiss any defensive line given how thoroughly the 49ers dismantled the Cowboys and star defensive end Micah Parsons in Week 5.
This Cleveland team is a different animal though. Edge rushers Myles Garrett and Za’Darius Smith offer an imposing duo that defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz can deploy all over the line in ways that cause confusion for offensive fronts. That duo should spend plenty of time wreaking havoc on a still unproven right side of the 49ers’ offensive line.
If they can affect Brock Purdy without blitzing, it could lead to some mistakes that he’s been able to avoid so far this season.
Browns DC Jim Schwartz
There aren’t many defensive coaches who have Kyle Shanahan’s number. Schwartz appears to though. When the two have faced off as coordinators (or head coaches), Schwartz has gotten the better of Shanahan with a 7-1 record. Even Shanahan’s vaunted 2016 Falcons offense posted just 15 points, 11 first downs and went 2-for-11 on third down. That’s been par for the course when Shanahan squares off against the Browns’ DC.
This 49ers group offers a different set of challenges for defenses, and their combination of weapons may just be impossible to adequately defend, but history says a Schwartz defense will give Shanahan some problems other defenses don’t.
Browns secondary
We probably could’ve condensed a lot of this down to “Browns defense,” but this unit is good enough that highlighting their individual aspects is worthwhile.
Cleveland’s pass rush is accompanied by its very talented secondary, which features star safety Grant Delpit who is Pro Football Focus’ third highest-graded safety overall and second highest-graded safety in coverage. He’s a rangy player who can cover near the line of scrimmage and down the field. Putting a player with his traits behind a dominant pass rush is a recipe for disaster for QBs.
The Browns group of cornerbacks – Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome II and Martin Emerson Jr. – have given up a combined two touchdowns with seven pass breakups. They’re not the best group of CBs in the NFL, but they’re very good and made even more effective by playing with an excellent pass rush. If Purdy makes a mistake, they’ll take advantage.
Complacency
This isn’t any indictment on the 49ers. It’s human nature. The 49ers are better than the Browns and Cleveland is banged up at the most important position on the field. PJ Walker is the likely starter for the Browns, and he’s thrown five touchdowns with 11 interceptions in seven career starts.
A good example of this came up in Week 9 of the 2021 season when the 49ers faced the Cardinals with starting QB Colt McCoy. San Francisco was coming off a nice road win over the Bears, but faceplanted the following week against Arizona’s journeyman backup QB.
If the 49ers believe they can toss their jerseys on the field and snag a Week 6 win, they could quickly find themselves in an uphill climb against an inferior opponent.
Weather!
Weather could be a factor for Sunday’s game in Cleveland. The high according to Weather.com is 55 degrees, with winds up to 18 MPH and possible rain throughout the game.
A game where the rushing attack is a big factor typically plays into the 49ers’ hands. They have a very good run defense and one of the NFL’s best run games. Unfortunately getting one-dimensional against a Browns team that might have the best defense in the league isn’t conducive to success.
Bad weather could lead to an ugly slugfest where one mistake could swing the game, and that’s the kind of game where upsets happen.
