The 49ers are favored by nearly a touchdown Sunday in Atlanta. Tipico Sportsbook has them sitting at 5.5-point favorites heading into the weekend despite a handful of injury issues on both sides of the ball for San Francisco. Looking ahead to their schedule this could be the last time they’re favored by upwards of a touchdown for a couple months.
After Atlanta they head home to face the Chiefs, then they hit the road to take on the Rams before a showdown with the Chargers at Levi’s Stadium coming out of the Bye. They also face the Cardinals, Saints, Dolphins and Buccaneers before going to Seattle for a Thursday night game. Their game after the Thursday game is Dec. 24 at home against the Washington Commanders, which may be the next time they’re favored by as many points as they are in Atlanta.
This isn’t necessarily to say the Falcons are going to be a pushover for San Francisco. Atlanta is 2-3, but their three losses have come by a combined 11 points. Their largest loss was a six-point defeat at the hands of the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay last week, and even that game was swung by a very questionable roughing the passer call on Falcons DL Grady Jarrett late.
Atlanta has struggled some defensively where they rank 27th in Football Outsiders’ Defensive DVOA metric. Offensively though they’re 10th in the NFL in that same stat despite ranking near the bottom of the league in pass attempts and passing yards.
Their run game has thrived though, and that’s where the concern sets in for the 49ers. San Francisco’s defense has been very good this year, but injuries will eventually catch up with them. Starting CB Emmanuel Moseley is out for the year with a torn ACL, and all four of their starting defensive linemen were out of practice Wednesday. There’s a chance the 49ers face one of the NFL’s most effective rushing attacks with what amounts to a backup defensive line.
It’s not that the 49ers shouldn’t be favored by nearly a touchdown. After all, sportsbooks are looking to get equal money on both sides of a number. However, just because this game is perhaps near the bottom of their schedule in terms of quality of opponent over the next couple of months doesn’t mean it’ll be easy for San Francisco.
